Too-Systemic-To-Fail: What Option Markets Imply About Sector-wide Government Guarantees
Abstract
We examine the pricing of financial crash insurance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis in U.S. option markets. A large amount of aggregate tail risk is missing from the price of financial sector crash insurance during the financial crisis. The difference in costs of out-of-the-money put options for individual banks, and puts on the financial sector index, increases fourfold from its pre-crisis 2003-2007 level. We provide evidence that a collective government guarantee for the financial sector, which lowers index put prices far more than those of individual banks, explains the divergence in the basket-index put spread.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9023.Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9023
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Related research
Keywords: financial crisis; government bailout; option pricing models; systemic risk; too-big-to-fail;Other versions of this item:
- Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Hanno Lustig & Bryan Kelly, 2011. "Too-Systemic-To-Fail: What Option Markets Imply About Sector-wide Government Guarantees," 2011 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Bryan T. Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2011. "Too-Systemic-To-Fail: What Option Markets Imply About Sector-wide Government Guarantees," NBER Working Papers 17149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-07-14 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2012-07-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2012-07-14 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2012-07-14 (Risk Management)
References
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Marcin Kacperczyk & Philipp Schnabl, 2011. "Implicit Guarantees and Risk Taking: Evidence from Money Market Funds," NBER Working Papers 17321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Javier Bianchi, 2012.
"Efficient Bailouts?,"
2012 Meeting Papers
162, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Javier Bianchi, 2012. "Efficient bailouts?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 133, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Javier Bianchi, 2012. "Efficient Bailouts?," NBER Working Papers 18587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jaromir Nosal & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2013.
"Uncertainty as commitment,"
National Bank of Poland Working Papers
141, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- Jaromir Nosal & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2013. "Uncertainty as Commitment," NBER Working Papers 18766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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