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The Wealth-Consumption Ratio

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  • Lustig, Hanno
  • van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn
  • Verdelhan, Adrien

Abstract

We derive new estimates of total wealth, the returns on total wealth, and the wealth effect on consumption. We estimate the prices of aggregate risk from bond yields and stock returns using a no-arbitrage model. Using these risk prices, we compute total wealth as the price of a claim to aggregate consumption. We find that US households have a surprising amount of total wealth, most of it human wealth. This wealth is much less risky than stock market wealth. Events in long-term bond markets, not stock markets, drive most total wealth fluctuations. The wealth effect on consumption is small and varies over time with real interest rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 9022.

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Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9022

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Keywords: discount rate; equity risk premium; excess return; interest rate; risk premium; stock market; stock returns;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jules van Binsbergen & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Ralph S.J. Koijen & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model with Recursive Preferences," NBER Working Papers 15890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ravi Bansal & Marcelo Ochoa, 2011. "Welfare Costs of Long-Run Temperature Shifts," NBER Working Papers 17574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Antonio Falato, 2008. "Happiness maintenance and asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2009. "The Term Structures of Equity and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 14698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Aoki, Shuhei & Kitahara, Minoru, 2008. "Measuring the Dynamic Cost of Living Index from Consumption Data," MPRA Paper 9802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2011. "Variance Bounds on the Permanent and Transitory Components of Stochastic Discount Factors," Working Paper Series 2011-11, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  7. Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku & Amir Yaron, 2009. "An Empirical Evaluation of the Long-Run Risks Model for Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 15504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jonathan Berk & Johan Walden, 2010. "Limited Capital Market Participation and Human Capital Risk," NBER Working Papers 15709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Yang, Wei, 2011. "Long-run risk in durable consumption," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 45-61, October.
  10. Jules H. van Binsbegen & Michael W. Brandt & Ralph S.J. Koijen, 2010. "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends," Working Papers 2010-010, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  11. Aono, Kohei & Iwaisako, Tokuo, 2008. "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio, Real Estate Wealth, and the Japanese Stock Market," Discussion Paper Series a504, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  12. Miguel Palacios, 2010. "Human Capital as an Asset Class: Implications from a General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 2011-016, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
  13. Sydney Ludvigson, 2008. "The Research Agenda: Sydney Ludvigson on Empirical Evaluation of Economic Theories of Risk Premia," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), April.
  14. Chung, Kee H. & Smith, William T. & Wu, Tao L., 2009. "Time diversification: Definitions and some closed-form solutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1101-1111, June.
  15. Jianfeng Yu, 2012. "Using Long-Run Consumption-Return Correlations to Test Asset Pricing Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 317-335, October.
  16. Koijen, Ralph & Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2012. "The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 9024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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