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Aggregate Income Risks and Hedging Mechanisms

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Author Info
Robert J. Shiller () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

Estimates are made, from time series data on real gross domestic products, of the standard deviations of returns in markets for perpetual claims on countries' incomes. The results indicate that the variability of returns is of a magnitude comparable to that of returns in stock markets. Evidence is shown that there may be only minimal possibility of cross hedging these returns in existing capital markets. Methods of establishing markets for perpetual claims on aggregate incomes are examined. Such markets, by allowing hedging of these aggregate income risks, might make for dramatically more effective international macroeconomic risk sharing than is possible today. Retail institutions are described that might develop around such markets and help the public with their risk management. However, the establishment of such markets would also incur the risk of major financial bubbles and panics.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d10a/d1048.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1048.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Jun 1993
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1048

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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
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Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John B. Taylor, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," NBER Reprints 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  2. Devereux, Michael B. & Gregory, Allan W. & Smith, Gregor W., 1992. "Realistic cross-country consumption correlations in a two-country, equilibrium, business cycle model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-16, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Robert J. Shiller, 1993. "Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures indices and Perpetual Futures," NBER Technical Working Papers 0131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Balke, Nathan S & Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 38-92, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Stockman, A.C. & Tesar, L.L., 1990. "Tastes And Technology In A Two-Country Model Of The Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," University of California Santa Barbara - Department of Economics 16-90, California Santa Barbara - Department of Economics.
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  7. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "Are Industrial-Country Consumption Risks Globally Diversified?," NBER Working Papers 4308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1988. "Risk, Implicit Contracts and the Family in Rural Areas of Low-income Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(393), pages 1148-70, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cantor, Richard & Driskill, Robert, 1988. "Open-economy macro policies and the micro foundation of labor market arrangements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 159-172, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Sachs, Jeffrey & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Fiscal Federalism and Optimum Currency Areas: Evidence for Europe from the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Understanding Risk and Return," NBER Working Papers 4554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss, 1991. "Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1006, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  15. Andrew B. Abel, . "The Implications of Insurance for the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 06-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  16. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-2), pages 157-216. [Downloadable!]
  18. Brainard, William & Dolbear, F T, 1971. "Social Risk and Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 360-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Beltratti, Andrea E & Shiller, Robert J, 1993. "Actual and Warranted Relations between Asset Prices," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 387-402, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1988. "A New Set of International Comparisons of Real Product and Price Levels Estimates for 130 Countries, 1950-1985," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 1-25, March.
  22. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Rhee, C. & Rhee, W., 1991. "Fundamental Value and Investment: Micro Data Evidence," RCER Working Papers 282, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  24. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Shiller, Robert J, 1993. " Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures Indices and Perpetual Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(3), pages 911-31, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Arzac, Enrique R, 1989. "Income Insurance with Uncertain Output," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 561-69, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Qiang Zhang, 2004. "Accounting for Human Capital and Weak Identification in Evaluating the Esptein-Zin-Weil Non-Expected Utility Model of Asset Pricing," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-289, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," NBER Working Papers 13896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Wealth Shocks and Risk Aversion," NIPE Working Papers 28/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mario Crucini & Prasad Bidarkota, 1997. "Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," Working Papers 98-01, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "The Returns on Human Capital: Good News on Wall Street is Bad News on Main Street," NBER Working Papers 11564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. David Blake, 2004. "The impact of wealth on consumption and retirement behaviour in the UK," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 555-576, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michel Normandin & Pascal St-Amour, 1999. "Total Wealth, Consumption and Portfolio Shares: Evidence and Theory," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 96, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
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