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Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices

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Author Info
Andrea E. Beltratti
Robert J. Shiller () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

Efficient markets models assert that the price of each asset is equal to the optimal forecast of its ex-post or fundamental value. These models do not imply, however, that the covariance between two asset prices is given by the covariance between the ex-post values they respectively forecast: these two covariances can even have opposite signs. However, it is possible to place bounds on the covariance between asset prices given the covariance matrix of ex-post values. We present such bounds for both covariances and correlations and show how such bounds can be tightened using information beyond the covariance matrix of ex-post values. The methods are used to examine whether the historical correlation between the U.S. and U.K. stock markets 1919-1989 is warranted. The bounds on the warranted covariance are very wide and include the actual correlation.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 970.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Feb 1991
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Publication status: Published in Oxford Economic Papers (1993), 45: 387-402
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:970

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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
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Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Volatility; stock market; asset pricing; efficient markets; information;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-89, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Robert J. Shiller & Andrea E. Beltratti, 1990. "Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Co-Movements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 953, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Shiller, Robert J, 1989. " Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 719-29, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Robert S. Pindyck & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1990. "Do Stock Prices Move Together Too Much?," NBER Working Papers 3324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Robert J. Shiller & Andrea E. Beltratti, 1990. "Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Co-Movements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 953, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Robert J. Shiller, 1993. "Aggregate Income Risks and Hedging Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 4396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. J. Bradford De Long & Richard Grossman, 1992. "Excess Volatility on the London Stock Market, 1870-1990," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _133, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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