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Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends

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Robert J. Shiller

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Abstract

Simple efficient markets models imply that the covariance between prices of speculative assets cannot exceed the covariance between their respective fundamentals unless there is positive information pooling. Positive information pooling occurs when there is more information, in a sense defined here, about the aggregate of the fundamentals than there is about the individual fundamentals. With constant discount rates, the covariance between prices (detrended by dividing by a moving average of lagged dividends) in the U. K. and the U. S. exceeds the covariance of the measure of fundamentals, and there is no evidence of positive information pooling. Regression tests of forecast errors in one country on a real price variable in another country show significantly negative coefficients. When the present value formula uses short rates to discount, there is less evidence of excess comovement.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2846.

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Date of creation: Feb 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2846

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1983. "Excess Volatility in the Financial Markets: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 929-56, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1985. " An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 677-87, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Marsh, Terry A. & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Dividend variability and variance bounds tests for the rationality of stock market prices," Working papers 1584-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Robert S. Pindyck & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1988. "The Excess Co-Movement of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 2671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1142-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pavlos Petroulas, 2007. "Short -Term Capital Flows and Growth in Developed and Emerging Markets," Working Papers 60, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  2. Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Casper de Vries, 2005. "Banking system stability - a cross-Atlantic perspective," Working Paper Series 527, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2000. "Are Correlations of Stock Returns Justified by Subsequent Changes in National Outputs?," Working Papers 00-2, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Anwar M. Shaikh, 1998. "The Stock Market and the Corporate Sector: A Profit-Based Approach," Macroeconomics 9811007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andrea E. Beltratti & Robert J. Shiller, 1994. "Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 3640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Hyunbae Chun & Jung-Wook Kim & Jason Lee & Randall Morck, 2004. "Patterns of Comovement: The Role of Information Technology in the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 10937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bruno Solnik, 1991. "Finance Theory and Investment Management," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 127(III), pages 303-324, September. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fabrice Rousseau & Laurent Germain & Fabrice Rousseau & Anne Vanhems, 2008. "Irrational Financial Markets," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1870108.pdf, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  9. Laura Veldkamp, 2004. "Information Markets and the Comovement of Asset Prices," Working Papers 04-18, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Comovement," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1953, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Comovement," NBER Working Papers 8895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    • Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2005. "Comovement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 283-317, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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