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Do Stock Prices Move Together Too Much?

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  • Robert S. Pindyck
  • Julio J. Rotemberg

Abstract

We show that comovements of individual stock prices cannot be justified by economic fundamentals. This finding is a rejection of the present value model of security valuation. Unlike other tests of this model, ours is robust in that it allows for volatility in ex ante rates of return. The only constraint we impose is that investors' utilities are functions of a single consumption index. This implies that changes in discount rates must be related to changes in macroeconomic variables, and hence stock prices of companies in unrelated lines of business should move together only in response to changes in current or expected future macroeconomic conditions. We also show that this constraint implies that any priced factors in the APT model must be related to macroeconomic variables. Hence our results are also a rejection of the APT, so constrained.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert S. Pindyck & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1990. "Do Stock Prices Move Together Too Much?," NBER Working Papers 3324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3324
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
    2. Olatunji A. Shobande & Simplice A. Asongu, 2021. "Financial Development, Human Capital Development and Climate Change in East and Southern Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 21/042, African Governance and Development Institute..
    3. Beltratti, Andrea E & Shiller, Robert J, 1993. "Actual and Warranted Relations between Asset Prices," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 387-402, July.
    4. Arampatzidis, Ioannis & Dergiades, Theologos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Oil and the U.S. stock market: Implications for low carbon policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Energy commodities, precious metals and industrial metal markets: A nexus across different investment horizons and market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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