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Rational Pessimism, Rational Exuberance, and Asset Pricing Models

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  • Ravi Bansal
  • A. Ronald Gallant
  • George Tauchen

Abstract

The paper estimates and examines the empirical plausibiltiy of asset pricing models that attempt to explain features of financial markets such as the size of the equity premium and the volatility of the stock market. In one model, the long run risks model of Bansal and Yaron (2004), low frequency movements and time varying uncertainty in aggregate consumption growth are the key channels for understanding asset prices. In another, as typified by Campbell and Cochrane (1999), habit formation, which generates time-varying risk-aversion and consequently time-variation in risk-premia, is the key channel. These models are fitted to data using simulation estimators. Both models are found to fit the data equally well at conventional significance levels, and they can track quite closely a new measure of realized annual volatility. Further scrutiny using a rich array of diagnostics suggests that the long run risk model is preferred.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13107.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Publication status: published as Ravi Bansal & A. Ronald Gallant & George Tauchen, 2007. "Rational Pessimism, Rational Exuberance, and Asset Pricing Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 74(4), pages 1005-1033, October.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13107

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  1. Sydney Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Consumption, aggregate wealth and expected stock returns," Staff Reports 77, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Martin Lettau, 2005. "Euler Equation Errors," 2005 Meeting Papers 487, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1997. "Reprojecting Partially Observed Systems with Application to Interest Rate Diffusions," Working Papers 97-09, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  4. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  8. Evans, Martin D D, 1998. "Dividend Variability and Stock Market Swings," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 711-40, October.
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  24. Anderson, T. W., 2002. "Reduced rank regression in cointegrated models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 203-216, February.
  25. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
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