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Long-run risks and financial markets

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  • Ravi Bansal

Abstract

The recently developed long-run risks asset pricing model shows that concerns about long-run expected growth and time-varying uncertainty (i.e., volatility) about future economic prospects drive asset prices. These two channels of economic risks can account for the risk premia and asset price fluctuations. In addition, the model can empirically account for the cross-sectional differences in asset returns. Hence, the long-run risks model provides a coherent and systematic framework for analyzing financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-run risks and financial markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 283-300.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2007:i:jul:p:283-300:n:v.89no.4
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    Cited by:

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    3. Levin, Andrew T. & David López-Salido, J. & Nelson, Edward & Yun, Tack, 2008. "Macroeconometric equivalence, microeconomic dissonance, and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 48-62, October.
    4. Nathan S. Balke & Enrique Martínez García & Zheng Zeng, 2017. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Credit Frictions and Uncertainty," Globalization Institute Working Papers 317, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Hao Xing, 2017. "Consumption–investment optimization with Epstein–Zin utility in incomplete markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 227-262, January.
    6. Joachim Grammig & Andreas Schrimpf & Michael Schuppli, 2009. "Long-horizon consumption risk and the cross-section of returns: new tests and international evidence," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5-6), pages 511-532.
    7. Shaliastovich, Ivan & Tauchen, George, 2011. "Pricing of the time-change risks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 843-858, June.
    8. Constantin Anghelache & Alexandru Manole & Madalina Anghel & Mugurel Popovici & Marius Popovici, 2016. "Significant aspects regarding the analysis of bankruptcy risk," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(9), pages 81-87, September.
    9. Zixin Feng & Dejian Tian, 2021. "Optimal consumption and portfolio selection with Epstein-Zin utility under general constraints," Papers 2111.09032, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    10. Wayne E. Ferson & Suresh K. Nallareddy & Biqin Xie, 2012. "The "Out of Sample" Performance of Long-run Risk Models," NBER Working Papers 17848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Bjørn Eraker & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2008. "An Equilibrium Guide To Designing Affine Pricing Models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 519-543, October.
    12. Johnson Kakeu, 2023. "Concerns for Long-Run Risks and Natural Resource Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1051-1093, April.
    13. Hengjie Ai & Ravi Bansal, 2016. "Risk Preferences and The Macro Announcement Premium," NBER Working Papers 22527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kwan, Yum K. & Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Dong, Jinyue, 2015. "Comparing consumption-based asset pricing models: The case of an Asian city," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 18-41.
    15. Joshua Aurand & Yu-Jui Huang, 2019. "Epstein-Zin Utility Maximization on a Random Horizon," Papers 1903.08782, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    16. Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Commentary on \\"Long-run risks and financial markets\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 301-304.
    17. Munk, Claus, 2015. "Financial Asset Pricing Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198716457.
    18. Pascal Böni & Heinz Zimmermann, 2021. "Are stock prices driven by expected growth rather than discount rates? Evidence based on the COVID-19 crisis," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 1-29, June.
    19. Abhyankar, Abhay & Klinkowska, Olga & Lee, Soyeon, 2015. "Consumption risk and the cross-section of government bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 180-200.
    20. Ferson, Wayne & Nallareddy, Suresh & Xie, Biqin, 2013. "The “out-of-sample” performance of long run risk models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 537-556.
    21. Kakeu, Johnson & Bouaddi, Mohammed, 2017. "Empirical evidence of news about future prospects in the risk-pricing of oil assets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 458-468.
    22. Hao Xing, 2015. "Consumption investment optimization with Epstein-Zin utility in incomplete markets," Papers 1501.04747, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2015.
    23. Claude Bergeron, 2013. "Dividend growth, stock valuation, and long-run risk," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(4), pages 547-559, October.
    24. Holger Kraft & Frank Seifried & Mogens Steffensen, 2013. "Consumption-portfolio optimization with recursive utility in incomplete markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 161-196, January.
    25. John Armstrong & Cristin Buescu, 2020. "Asymptotically Optimal Management of Heterogeneous Collectivised Investment Funds," Papers 2004.01506, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; Risk;

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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