Valuation Risk and Asset Pricing
AbstractStandard representative-agent models have difficulty in accounting for the weak correlation between stock returns and measurable fundamentals, such as consumption and output growth. This failing underlies virtually all modern asset-pricing puzzles. The correlation puzzle arises because these models load all uncertainty onto the supply side of the economy. We propose a simple theory of asset pricing in which demand shocks play a central role. These shocks give rise to valuation risk that allows the model to account for key asset pricing moments, such as the equity premium, the bond term premium, and the weak correlation between stock returns and fundamentals.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18617.
Date of creation: Dec 2012
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- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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- Pagel, Michaela, 2012. "Expectations-Based Reference-Dependent Preferences and Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 47933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song & Amir Yaron, 2013. "Identifying long-run risks: a bayesian mixed-frequency approach," Working Papers 13-39, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Burkhard Heer & Alfred Maussner & Bernd Süssmuth, 2013. "Cyclical Asset Returns in the Consumption and Investment Goods Sector," CESifo Working Paper Series 4364, CESifo Group Munich.
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