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International Risk Sharing is Better Than You Think (or Exchange Rates are Much Too Smooth)

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Author Info
Michael W. Brandt
John H. Cochrane
Pedro Santa-Clara

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Abstract

Exchange rates depreciate by the difference between the domestic and foreign marginal utility growths. Exchange rates vary a lot , as much as 10% per year. However, equity premia imply that marginal utility growths vary much more, by at least 50% per year. This means that marginal utility growths must be highly correlated across countries -- international risk sharing is better than you think. Conversely, if risks really are not shared internationally, exchange rates should vary more than they do -- exchange rates are much too smooth. We calculate an index of international risk sharing that formalizes this intuition in the context of both complete and incomplete capital markets. Our results suggest that risk sharing is indeed very high across several pairs of countries.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8404.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8404

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G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Elizaveta Krylova & Lorenzo Cappiello & Roberto A. De Santis, 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics - the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 529, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-Run Risks and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 13196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2004. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Working papers 4322-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Pierre Perron† & Tatsuma Wada, 2005. "Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-031, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Michael Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2004. "International Capital Markets and Foreign Exchange Risk," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1251, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Luigi Pistaferri, 2006. "Household heterogeneity and real exchange rates," Staff Report 372, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Hanno Lustig, 2005. "Investing in Foreign Currency is like Betting on your Intertemporal Marginal Rate of Substitution (joint with Adrien Verdelhan, BU, forthcoming in Papers and Proceedings JEEA)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 368, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Timothy K. Chue, 2004. "The Spirit of Capitalism and International Risk Sharing," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 589, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  9. Roche, M.J. & Moore. M.J., 2002. "Volatile and persistent real exchange rates without the contrivance of sticky prices," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1160402, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
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