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The Bond Risk Premium and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns

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  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

    (NYU Stern)

  • Hanno Lustig

    (UCLA Anderson)

  • Ralph S.J. Koijen

    (Chicago GSB)

Abstract

The cross-section of returns of stock portfolios sorted along the book-to-market dimension can be understood with a one-factor model. The factor is the nominal bond risk premium, best measured as the Cochrane-Piazzesi (2005, CP) factor. This paper ties the pricing of stocks in the cross-section to the pricing of bonds of various maturities, two literatures that have been developed largely in isolation. A parsimonious stochastic discount factor model can price both the cross-section of stock and bond returns. The mean average pricing error across 5 bond and 10 book-to-market stock portfolio returns is less than 60 basis points per year. The model also replicates the dynamics of bond yields as well as the time-series predictability of stock and bond returns. Its key feature is a non-zero risk price on the state variable that governs the bond risk premium. Value stocks are riskier because their returns are high when the bond risk premium is high. Empirically, the CP factor peaks at the end of a recession, when good times lie ahead. We trace back this risk to the fundamentals: the properties of dividend growth. An equilibrium asset pricing model ties the properties of cash flows on stocks to stock and bond risk premia. The model generates the observed value spread as well as the observed sensitivities of excess returns and dividend growth to the bond risk premium. It does so because times when CP is high are times of low marginal utility growth when value stocks receive better news about future cash flows than growth stocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2009 Meeting Papers with number 12.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed009:12

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  1. Lior Menzly & Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Understanding Predictability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-47, February.
  2. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Aggregate Dynamics of Capital Structure and Macroeconomic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4187-4241, December.
  3. Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2012. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," CEPR Discussion Papers 9022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
  5. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Stochastic Differential Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 353-94, March.
  6. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
  7. Laura Veldkamp, 2003. "Learning Asymmetries in Real Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench, 2008. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Staff Reports 340, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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