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Using Long-Run Consumption-Return Correlations to Test Asset Pricing Models

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  • Jianfeng Yu

    (University of Minnesota)

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    Abstract

    This paper examines a new set of implications for existing asset pricing models regarding the correlation between returns and consumption growth over both the short run and the long run. The findings suggest that external habit formation models face a challenge in producing two robust facts in aggregate data, namely, that stock market returns lead consumption growth, and that the correlation between returns and consumption growth is higher at low frequencies. To reconcile these facts with a consumption-based model, I demonstrate the need for focusing on models that contain a forward looking consumption component, i.e., models that allow for both trend and cyclical fluctuations in consumption, and that link returns to cyclical fluctuations in consumption. Long-run risk models provide examples of models that contain this consumption component. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2012.04.001
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 (October)
    Pages: 317-335

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    Handle: RePEc:red:issued:10-230

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    Related research

    Keywords: Long-run risk; Forward-looking;

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    References

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    1. Lars Peter Hansen & John C. Heaton & Nan Li, 2008. "Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 260-302, 04.
    2. Daniel, Kent & Marshall, David, 1997. "Equity-Premium And Risk-Free-Rate Puzzles At Long Horizons," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 452-484, June.
    3. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
    4. Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2005. "Consumption Risk and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 185-222, February.
    5. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2005. "Using Asset Prices to Measure the Persistence of the Marginal Utility of Wealth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1977-2016, November.
    6. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2012. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," CEPR Discussion Papers 9022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ravi Bansal & Robert Dittmar & Dana Kiku, 2009. "Cointegration and Consumption Risks in Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1343-1375, March.
    9. Wachter, Jessica A., 2005. "Solving models with external habit," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 210-226, December.
    10. Ravi Bansal & Robert F. Dittmar & Christian T. Lundblad, 2005. "Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1639-1672, 08.
    11. Ravi Bansal & A. Ronald Gallant & George Tauchen, 2007. "Rational Pessimism, Rational Exuberance, and Asset Pricing Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 1005-1033.
    12. Ilan Cooper, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk Premiums and the Output Gap," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2601-2633, July.
    13. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
    14. Otrok, Christopher & Ravikumar, B. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2002. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1261-1288, September.
    15. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
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