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On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends

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  • Jules van Binsbergen
  • Michael Brandt
  • Ralph Koijen

Abstract

We present evidence on the term structure of the equity premium. We recover prices of dividend strips, which are short-term assets that pay dividends on the stock index every period up to period T and nothing thereafter. It is short-term relative to the index because the index pays dividends in perpetuity. We find that expected returns, Sharpe ratios, and volatilities on short-term assets are higher than on the index, while their CAPM betas are below one. Short-term assets are more volatile than their realizations, leading to excess volatility and return predictability. Our findings are inconsistent with many leading theories.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 102 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (June)
Pages: 1596-1618

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:4:p:1596-1618

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References

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  1. Jessica Wachter, 2010. "Asset Allocation," NBER Working Papers 16255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
  3. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2009. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 162-178, February.
  4. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
  5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  6. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," NBER Working Papers 13896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jaroslav Borovička & Mark Hendricks & José A. Scheinkman, 2011. "Risk-Price Dynamics," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 3-65, Winter.
  8. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2011. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 16810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Stylianos Perrakis & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & George Constantinides, 2005. "Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options," Working Papers, Warwick Business School, Finance Group wp05-07, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  10. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
  11. Mariano M. Croce & Marin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2006. "Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Duration fo Risky Assets," 2006 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 628, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  13. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  15. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "Long Run Risk, the Wealth-Consumption Ratio, and the Temporal Pricing of Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 552-56, May.
  16. Koijen, Ralph & Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2012. "The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 9024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley E. Zin, 2011. "Sources of Entropy in Representative Agent Models," NBER Working Papers 17219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Morris A. Davis & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2014. "Housing, Finance and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 20287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jaroslav BoroviÄka & Lars Peter Hansen, 2011. "Examining Macroeconomic Models Through the Lens of Asset Pricing," Working Papers, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics 2011-012, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  4. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2013. "Carry," NBER Working Papers 19325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Wouter Hueskes & Ralph S.J. Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt & Jules H. van Binsbergen, 2011. "A Term Structure of Growth," 2011 Meeting Papers 672, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Thomas M. Eisenbach & Martin C. Schmalz, 2013. "Up close it feels dangerous: 'anxiety' in the face of risk," Staff Reports 610, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Robert E. Hall, 2014. "High Discounts and High Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 19871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Stanislav Khrapov, 2012. "Risk Premia: Short and Long-term," Working Papers w0169, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  9. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2014. "Rare Booms and Disasters in a Multi-sector Endowment Economy," NBER Working Papers 20062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. David le Bris & William N. Goetzmann & Sébastien Pouget, 2014. "Testing Asset Pricing Theory on Six Hundred Years of Stock Returns: Prices and Dividends for the Bazacle Company from 1372 to 1946," NBER Working Papers 20199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2011. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 16810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Schröder, David & Esterer, Florian, 2012. "A new measure of equity duration: The duration-based explanation of the value premium revisited," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62077, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  13. van Binsbergen, Jules & Hueskes, Wouter & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert, 2013. "Equity yields," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 503-519.
    • Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Branger, Nicole & Grüning, Patrick & Kraft, Holger & Meinerding, Christoph, 2013. "Asset pricing under uncertainty about shock propagation," SAFE Working Paper Series 34, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.

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