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On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends

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Author Info

  • Jules H. van Binsbergen

    (Northwestern Kellogg, Stanford GSB, and NBER)

  • Michael W. Brandt

    (Duke University and NBER)

  • Ralph S.J. Koijen

    (Chicago Booth and NBER)

Abstract

We recover prices of dividend strips on the aggregate stock market using data from derivatives markets. The price of a k-year dividend strip is the present value of the dividend paid in k years. The value of the stock market is the sum of all dividend strip prices across maturities. We study the properties of strips and find that expected returns, Sharpe ratios, and volatilities on short-term strips are higher than on the aggregate stock market, while their CAPM betas are well below one. Short-term strip prices are more volatile than their realizations, leading to excess volatility and return predictability.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 11-13.

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Length: 50 pages
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Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1113

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Web page: http://www.SwissFinanceInstitute.ch
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Related research

Keywords: Equity Risk Premium; Dividend Strips; Consumption-Based Asset Pricing;

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References

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  1. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," 2006 Meeting Papers 29, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2012. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," CEPR Discussion Papers 9022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Jessica A. Wachter & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2007. "Predictable Returns and Asset Allocation: Should a Skeptical Investor Time the Market?," NBER Working Papers 13165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  5. Koijen, Ralph & Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2012. "The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 9024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Jessica Wachter, 2010. "Asset Allocation," NBER Working Papers 16255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "Long Run Risk, the Wealth-Consumption Ratio, and the Temporal Pricing of Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 552-56, May.
  9. Jonathan Lewellen & Stefan Nagel & Jay Shanken, 2006. "A Skeptical Appraisal of Asset-Pricing Tests," NBER Working Papers 12360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
  11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  12. Stylianos Perrakis & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & George Constantinides, 2005. "Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options," Working Papers wp05-07, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  13. Mariano M. Croce & Marin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2006. "Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Duration fo Risky Assets," 2006 Meeting Papers 628, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  15. Lars Peter Hansen & Jaroslav BoroviÄka & Mark Hendricks & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2010. "Risk Price Dynamics," Working Papers 2010-004, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  16. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2011. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 16810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2013. "Carry," NBER Working Papers 19325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2011. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 16810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Backus, David & Chernov, Mikhail & Zin, Stanley E., 2011. "Sources of entropy in representative agent models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8488, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Wouter Hueskes & Ralph S.J. Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt & Jules H. van Binsbergen, 2011. "A Term Structure of Growth," 2011 Meeting Papers 672, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Branger, Nicole & Grüning, Patrick & Kraft, Holger & Meinerding, Christoph, 2013. "Asset pricing under uncertainty about shock propagation," SAFE Working Paper Series 34, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
  6. Jaroslav BoroviÄka & Lars Peter Hansen, 2011. "Examining Macroeconomic Models Through the Lens of Asset Pricing," Working Papers 2011-012, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  7. Schröder, David & Esterer, Florian, 2012. "A new measure of equity duration: The duration-based explanation of the value premium revisited," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62077, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  8. van Binsbergen, Jules & Hueskes, Wouter & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert, 2013. "Equity yields," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 503-519.
    • Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. David le Bris & William N. Goetzmann & Sébastien Pouget, 2014. "Testing Asset Pricing Theory on Six Hundred Years of Stock Returns: Prices and Dividends for the Bazacle Company from 1372 to 1946," NBER Working Papers 20199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Thomas M. Eisenbach & Martin C. Schmalz, 2013. "Up close it feels dangerous: 'anxiety' in the face of risk," Staff Reports 610, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Stanislav Khrapov, 2012. "Risk Premia: Short and Long-term," Working Papers w0169, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  12. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2014. "Rare Booms and Disasters in a Multi-sector Endowment Economy," NBER Working Papers 20062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Robert E. Hall, 2014. "High Discounts and High Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 19871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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