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The Wealth-Consumption Ratio: A Litmus Test for Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models¤

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Author Info
Hanno Lustig () (UCLA and NBER)
Stijn Van Nieuwerburg () (NYU and NBER)
Adrien Verdelhan () (Boston University)

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Abstract

The volatility of the price-dividend ratio on stocks, the predictability of stock returns, and the lack of predictability in dividend growth are commonly interpreted as evidence of substantial time-variation in risk premia. We construct the wealth-consumption ratio for the U.S., the price-dividend ratio on total wealth. We show that it is at least ¯ve times less volatile than the price-dividend ratio on stocks. The wealth-consumption ratio encodes information about conditional market prices of risk, and hence about asset prices. Matching its properties is a litmus test for consumption-based asset pricing models. Models that match the predictability of equity returns impute too much predictability to total wealth returns and hence too much volatility to the wealth-consumption ratio, because they rely on time variation in the risk premium on total wealth. The smoothness of the wealth-consumption ratio suggests that there may be less time-variation in market prices of risk than commonly inferred from equity prices alone.

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Paper provided by Boston University - Department of Economics in its series Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number WP2007-030.

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Length: 71pages
Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2007-030

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Raquel Fernandez, 2007. "Culture as Learning: The Evolution of Female Labor Force Participation over a Century," NBER Working Papers 13373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2002. "The Power of the Pill: Oral Contraceptives and Women's Career and Marriage Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 730-770, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1993. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Matthias Doepke & Michèle Tertilt, 2008. "Women's Liberation: What's in It for Men?," NBER Working Papers 13919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Albanesi, Stefania & Olivetti, Claudia, 2005. "Home Production, Market Production and the Gender Wage Gap: Incentives and Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4984, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Valerie A. Ramey & Neville Francis, 2006. "A Century of Work and Leisure," NBER Working Papers 12264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2005. "The Baby Boom and Baby Bust," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 183-207, March. [Downloadable!]
  8. Chiappori, Pierre-Andre, 1997. "Introducing Household Production in Collective Models of Labor Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 191-209, February.
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  9. Richard Blundell & Pierre-André Chiappori & Costas Meghir, 2005. "Collective Labor Supply with Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(6), pages 1277-1306, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Raquel Fernández & Alessandra Fogli & Claudia Olivetti, 2004. "Mothers and Sons: Preference Formation and Female Labor Force Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1249-1299, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Alessandra Fogli & Laura Veldkamp, 2007. "Nature or nurture? learning and female labor force dynamics," Staff Report 386, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Maurizio Mazzocco, 2007. "Household Intertemporal Behaviour: A Collective Characterization and a Test of Commitment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 74(3), pages 857-895, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 1993. "Working in the Market, Working at Home, and the Acquisition of Skills: A General-Equilibrium Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 893-907, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Stefania Albanesi & Claudia Olivetti, 2006. "Gender and Dynamic Agency: Theory and Evidence on the Compensation of Female Top Executives," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-061, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. John Knowles, 2005. "Why are Married Men Working So Much?," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-031, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Mehmet Yorukoglu, 2005. "Engines of Liberation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(1), pages 109-133, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Martha J Bailey, 2006. "More Power to the Pill: The Impact of Contraceptive Freedom on Women's Life Cycle Labor Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(1), pages 289-320, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Browning, Martin & Francois Bourguignon & Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Valerie Lechene, 1994. "Income and Outcomes: A Structural Model of Intrahousehold Allocation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1067-96, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Alessandra Fogli & Raquel Fernandez, 2005. "Culture: An Empirical Investigation of Beliefs, Work, and Fertility," Working Papers 05-07, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Chiappori, Pierre-Andre, 1988. "Rational Household Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 63-90, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Raquel Fernandez, 2007. "Culture as Learning: The Evolution of Female Labor Force Participation over a Century," NBER Working Papers 13373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Antonio Falato, 2008. "Happiness maintenance and asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Alberto Alesina & Andrea Ichino & Loukas Karabarbounis, 2007. "Gender Based Taxation and the Division of Family Chores," IZA Discussion Papers 3233, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Fernández, Raquel, 2007. "Culture as Learning: The Evolution of Female Labour Force Participation Over a Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 6451, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cavalcanti, Tiago & Tavares, José, 2007. "The Output Cost of Gender Discrimination: A Model-Based Macroeconomic Estimate," CEPR Discussion Papers 6477, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," NBER Working Papers 13724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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