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The Consumption-Wealth Ratio, Real Estate Wealth, and the Japanese Stock Market

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  • Aono, Kohei
  • Iwaisako, Tokuo
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    Abstract

    The first contribution of this paper, following the works of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a,b), is construction of the Japanese consumption-wealth ratio data series and to examine whether it explains Japanese stock market data. We find that the consumption-wealth ratio does not predict future stock returns, but it does help to explain the cross-section of Japanese stock returns. The second contribution of the paper is that we propose new consumption-wealth ratios in terms of which we more explicitly deal with household real estate wealth utilizing Japanese aggregate level data. Such "real estate augmented" consumption-wealth ratios work in a similar way, but perform better than, the consumption-wealth ratio calculated with only financial wealth data. While the scaled factor model with the consumption-wealth ratio proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson performs relatively well with Japanese data, the book-to-market related anomaly pointed out by Jagannathan et al. (1998) remains strong.

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    File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/15872/1/DP504.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number a504.

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    Length: 32 p.
    Date of creation: Jul 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hit:hituec:a504

    Note: July 13, 2008, The previous version of this paper was circulated under the title of "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio and the Japanese Stock Market". We made substantial changes to the calculation of the variables used in the empirical analyses in this current version.
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    Related research

    Keywords: consumption-wealth ratio; cointegration; cross-section of stock returns;

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    References

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    1. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2003. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perpective," NBER Working Papers 9959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996. "The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Staff Report 208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," NBER Working Papers 13896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Motohiro Yogo, 2006. "A Consumption-Based Explanation of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 539-580, 04.
    5. Paul Gao & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2004. "Aggregate consumption-wealth ratio and the cross-section of stock returns: some international evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 04-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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    Cited by:
    1. Kohei Aono & Tokuo Iwaisako, 2011. "Forecasting Japanese Stock Returns with Financial Ratios and Other Variables," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 373-384, November.
    2. Márquez, Elena & Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2013. "Wealth shocks, credit conditions and asymmetric consumption response: Empirical evidence for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 357-366.

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