Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The consumption–wealth ratio, real estate wealth, and the Japanese stock market

Contents:

Author Info

  • Aono, Kohei
  • Iwaisako, Tokuo
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The first contribution of this paper, in following the works of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a,b), is to construct a Japanese consumption–wealth ratio data series and to examine whether it explains Japanese stock market data. We find that the consumption–wealth ratio does predict future stock returns, but the evidence is weaker than that from US data, and the source of predictability is limited to observations after the collapse of the asset bubble at the beginning of the 1990s. The consumption–wealth ratio also helps to explain cross-sectional Japanese stock returns. The second contribution of the paper is that we propose new consumption–wealth ratio that more explicitly deal with household real estate wealth utilizing Japanese aggregate-level data. Such “real estate augmented” consumption–wealth ratio perform better than the consumption–wealth ratio calculated with only financial wealth data. While the scaled factor model proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson performs relatively well with Japanese data, the book-to-market related anomaly pointed out by Chan et al. (1991) and Jagannathan et al. (1998) remains strong.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0922142512000618
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.

    Volume (Year): 25-26 (2013)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages: 39-51

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:25-26:y:2013:i::p:39-51

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557

    Related research

    Keywords: Consumption–wealth ratio; Cointegration; Cross-sectional stock returns;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Paul P.J. Gao & Kevin X.D. Huang, 2008. "Aggregate Consumption-Wealth Ratio and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Some International Evidence," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, May.
    2. Hanno N. Lustig & Stijn G. Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1167-1219, 06.
    3. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    4. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2010. "A century of equity premium predictability and the consumption-wealth ratio: An international perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 313-331, June.
    5. Campbell, John, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3207695, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Martin Lettau, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, 06.
    7. Hanno Lustig, . "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio: A Litmus Test for Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models," UCLA Economics Online Papers 420, UCLA Department of Economics.
    8. Mankiw, N.G. & Zeldes, S.P., 1990. "The Consumption Of Stockholders And Non-Stockholders," Weiss Center Working Papers 23-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    9. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 825-853, August.
    10. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    12. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    13. Jonathan Lewellen & Stefan Nagel, 2003. "The Conditional CAPM does not Explain Asset-Pricing Anamolies," NBER Working Papers 9974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. John Y. Campbell, 2002. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1974, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    15. Chan, Louis K C & Hamao, Yasushi & Lakonishok, Josef, 1991. " Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1739-64, December.
    16. Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2004. "Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Working Papers 138, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics..
    17. Stefan Nagel & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "Estimation and Evaluation of Conditional Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 873-909, 06.
    18. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    19. Jagannathan, Ravi & Kubota, Keiichi & Takehara, Hitoshi, 1998. "Relationship between Labor-Income Risk and Average Return: Empirical Evidence from the Japanese Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(3), pages 319-47, July.
    20. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    21. Motohiro Yogo, 2006. "A Consumption-Based Explanation of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 539-580, 04.
    22. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    23. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
    24. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    25. Hamori, Shigeyuki, 1992. "Test of C-CAPM for Japan: 1980-1988," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 67-72, January.
    26. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:25-26:y:2013:i::p:39-51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.