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Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets

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Abstract

This paper explores the history of inflation-indexed bond markets in the US and the UK. It documents a massive decline in long-term real interest rates from the 1990's until 2008, followed by a sudden spike in these rates during the financial crisis of 2008. Breakeven inflation rates, calculated from inflation-indexed and nominal government bond yields, stabilized until the fall of 2008, when they showed dramatic declines. The paper asks to what extent short-term real interest rates, bond risks, and liquidity explain the trends before 2008 and the unusual developments in the fall of 2008. Low inflation-indexed yields and high short-term volatility of inflation-indexed bond returns do not invalidate the basic case for these bonds, that they provide a safe asset for long-term investors. Governments should expect inflation-indexed bonds to be a relatively cheap form of debt financing going forward, even though they have offered high returns over the past decade.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d16b/d1696.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1696.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2009), 79-120
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1696

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Keywords: Expectations hypothesis; Liquidity; Term premia; TIPS;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138.
  2. Hans DEWACHTER & Leonardo IANIA, 2009. "An extended macro-finance model with financial factors," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces09.19, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën.
  3. Kajuth, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2011. "Inflation expectations from index-linked bonds: Correcting for liquidity and inflation risk premia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 225-235, June.
  4. Cartea, Álvaro & Saúl, Jonatan & Toro, Juan, 2012. "Optimal portfolio choice in real terms: Measuring the benefits of TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 721-740.
  5. Geert Bekaert & Xiaozheng Wang, 2010. "Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 25, pages 755-806, October.
  6. Schulz, Alexander & Stapf, Jelena, 2009. "Price discovery on traded inflation expectations: does the financial crisis matter?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Hanno Lustig, 2011. "Why Does the Treasury Issue TIPS? The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle," 2011 Meeting Papers 1443, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Grishchenko, Olesya V., 2011. "Asset pricing in the production economy subject to monetary shocks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 187-216, May.
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  10. Marini, François, 2011. "Financial intermediation in the theory of the risk-free rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1663-1668, July.
  11. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2011. "Extracting deflation probability forecasts from Treasury yields," Working Paper Series 2011-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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