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Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets

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Abstract

This paper explores the history of inflation-indexed bond markets in the US and the UK. It documents a massive decline in long-term real interest rates from the 1990's until 2008, followed by a sudden spike in these rates during the financial crisis of 2008. Breakeven inflation rates, calculated from inflation-indexed and nominal government bond yields, stabilized until the fall of 2008, when they showed dramatic declines. The paper asks to what extent short-term real interest rates, bond risks, and liquidity explain the trends before 2008 and the unusual developments in the fall of 2008. Low inflation-indexed yields and high short-term volatility of inflation-indexed bond returns do not invalidate the basic case for these bonds, that they provide a safe asset for long-term investors. Governments should expect inflation-indexed bonds to be a relatively cheap form of debt financing going forward, even though they have offered high returns over the past decade.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d16b/d1696.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1696.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2009), 79-120
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1696

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Keywords: Expectations hypothesis; Liquidity; Term premia; TIPS;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. John Campbell & Robert Shiller & Luis Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2587, Yale School of Management.
  2. Kajuth, Florian & Watzka, Sebastian, 2011. "Inflation expectations from index-linked bonds: Correcting for liquidity and inflation risk premia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 225-235, June.
  3. Hans Dewachter & Leonardo Iania, 2010. "An Extended Macro-Finance Model with Financial Factors," CESifo Working Paper Series 2950, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 16892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Marini, François, 2011. "Financial intermediation in the theory of the risk-free rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1663-1668, July.
  6. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 14/66, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Hanno Lustig, 2011. "Why Does the Treasury Issue TIPS? The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle," 2011 Meeting Papers 1443, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Geert Bekaert & Xiaozheng Wang, 2010. "Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 25, pages 755-806, October.
  9. Alexander Schulz & Jelena Stapf, 2011. "Price discovery on traded inflation expectations: does the financial crisis matter?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis", Basel, 25-26 August 2010, volume 34, pages 202-231 Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
  11. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakos, 2014. "Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications for Consumptions and Asset Prices," CEU Working Papers 2014_2, Department of Economics, Central European University.
  12. Cartea, Álvaro & Saúl, Jonatan & Toro, Juan, 2012. "Optimal portfolio choice in real terms: Measuring the benefits of TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 721-740.
  13. Schulz, Alexander & Stapf, Jelena, 2009. "Price discovery on traded inflation expectations: does the financial crisis matter?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Grishchenko, Olesya V., 2011. "Asset pricing in the production economy subject to monetary shocks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 187-216, May.

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