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Jump risk, stock returns, and slope of implied volatility smile

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  • Yan, Shu
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Abstract

In the presence of jump risk, expected stock return is a function of the average jump size, which can be proxied by the slope of option implied volatility smile. This implies a negative predictive relation between the slope of implied volatility smile and stock return. For more than four thousand stocks ranked by slope during 1996-2005, the difference between the risk-adjusted average returns of the lowest and highest quintile portfolios is 1.9% per month. Although both the systematic and idiosyncratic components of slope are priced, the idiosyncratic component dominates the systematic component in explaining the return predictability of slope. The findings are robust after controlling for stock characteristics such as size, book-to-market, leverage, volatility, skewness, and volume. Furthermore, the results cannot be explained by alternative measures of steepness of implied volatility smile in previous studies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 99 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 216-233

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:99:y:2011:i:1:p:216-233

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

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Keywords: Jump risk Stock returns Options Implied volatility smile Slope;

References

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Cited by:
  1. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," NBER Working Papers 19611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Callen, Jeffrey L. & Fang, Xiaohua, 2013. "Institutional investor stability and crash risk: Monitoring versus short-termism?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3047-3063.
  3. Florian Hett & Alexander Schmidt, 2013. "Bank Bailouts and Market Discipline: How Bailout Expectations Changed During the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1305, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 01 Aug 2013.
  4. Li, Junye, 2012. "Option-implied volatility factors and the cross-section of market risk premia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 249-260.
  5. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Li, Yinghua & Zhang, Liandong, 2011. "Corporate tax avoidance and stock price crash risk: Firm-level analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 639-662, June.
  6. Éric Jacquier & Cédric Okou, 2013. "Disentangling Continuous Volatility from Jumps in Long-Run Risk-Return Relationships," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-14, CIRANO.
  7. Anderson, Ronald C. & Reeb, David M. & Zhang, Yuzhao & Zhao, Wanli, 2013. "The efficacy of regulatory intervention: Evidence from the distribution of informed option trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4337-4352.
  8. Hett, Florian & Schmidt, Alexander, 2013. "Bank rescues and bailout expectations: The erosion of market discipline during the financial crisis," SAFE Working Paper Series 36, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.

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