Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?
AbstractCredit risk associated with interbank lending may lead to domino effects, where the failure of one bank results in the failure of other banks not directly affected by the initial shock. Recent work in economic theory shows that this risk of contagion depends on the precise pattern of interbank linkages. We use balance sheet information to estimate the matrix of bilateral credit relationships for the German banking system and test whether the breakdown of a single bank can lead to contagion. We find that the financial safety net (institutional guarantees for saving banks and cooperative banks) considerably reduces â but does not eliminate â the danger of contagion. Even so, the failure of a single bank could lead to the breakdown of up to 15 % of the banking system in terms of assets. -- Kreditrisiken aus Interbankbeziehungen kÃ¶nnen zu Dominoeffekten fÃ¼hren indem der Zusammenbruch einer Bank den Zusammenbruch anderer Banken bewirkt, die nicht direkt vom ursprÃ¼nglichen Schock betroffen waren. Neuere theoretische Arbeiten zeigen, dass dieses Ansteckungsrisiko von der genauen Struktur der Interbankbeziehungen abhÃ¤ngt. Wir schÃ¤tzen die Matrix bilateraler Kreditbeziehungen fÃ¼r das deutsche Bankensystem auf Basis von Bankbilanzdaten und testen anschliessend, ob der Zusammenbruch einer einzelnen Bank zu Ansteckungseffekten fÃ¼hren kann. Wir kommen zu dem Ergebnis, dass die Sicherungssysteme (institutionelle Garantien fÃ¼r Sparkassen und Kreditgenossenschaften) die Ansteckungsgefahr zwar betrÃ¤chtlich verringern aber nicht vollstÃ¤ndig eliminieren kÃ¶nnen. Die Zusammenbruch einer einzelnen Bank kann trotzdem zu einem Verlust von 15 % der Aktiva des gesamten Bankensystems fÃ¼hren.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 48 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer
Other versions of this item:
- Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James, Christopher, 1991. " The Losses Realized in Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1223-42, September.
- Rochet, Jean-Charles & Tirole, Jean, 1996.
"Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 733-62, November.
- Angelini, P. & Maresca, G. & Russo, D., 1996. "Systemic risk in the netting system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 853-868, June.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bolton, Patrick & Dewatripont, Mathias, 2000.
"Contagious bank failures in a free banking system,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 713-718, May.
- Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006.
"Risk Assessment for Banking Systems,"
INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.