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Equilibrium Analysis, Banking, Contagion and Financial Fragility

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Author Info
Dimitrios Tsomocos ()

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Abstract

This paper contains a General Equilibrium model of an economy with Incomplete Markets (GEI) with money and default. The model is a simplified version of the real world consisting of a non-bank private sector, banks, a Central Bank, a government and a regulator. The model is used to analyse actions by policy makers and to identify policy relevant empirical work. Key analytical results are: A financially fragile system need not collapse; efficiency can be improved with policy intervention; and that a system with heterogeneous banks is more stable than one with homogeneous ones. Existence of monetary equilibria allows for positive default levels in equilibrium. It also characterises contagion and financial fragility as an equilibrium phenomenon. A definition of financial fragility is proposed. Financial fragility occurs when aggregate profitability of the banking sector declines and defaults in the non-bank private and the banking sectors increase. Thus, equilibria with financial fragility require financial vulnerability in the banking sector and liquidity shortages in the non-bank private sector. The model will be used as a basis to carry out empirical work on the costs of financial instability, to quantify the effectiveness of particular regulatory tools such as capital requirements, and to identify tradeoffs between increasing stability through action by authorities and the efficiency of the financial system.

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Paper provided by Oxford Financial Research Centre in its series OFRC Working Papers Series with number 2003fe03.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2003fe03

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Related research
Keywords: Financial fragility; contagion; competitive banking; capital requirements; incomplete markets; default;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Tobin, James, 1982. " The Commercial Banking Firm: A Simple Model," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 84(4), pages 495-530.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Geanakoplos, J. D. & Tsomocos, D. P., 2002. "International finance in general equilibrium," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 85-142, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. M. Shubik & D. Tsomocos, 1992. "A strategic market game with a mutual bank with fractional reserves and redemption in gold," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 123-150, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Global Financial Instability: Framework, Events, Issues," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 3-20, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2005. "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks’ choice of loan rating system," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 537-557, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 1997. "Microeconomics of Banking," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061937.
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  9. Willem H. Buiter, 1999. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," NBER Working Papers 7302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Brenda González-Hermosillo, 1999. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress: A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes," IMF Working Papers 99/33, International Monetary Fund.
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  15. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-55, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Blum, Jurg & Hellwig, Martin, 1995. "The macroeconomic implications of capital adequacy requirements for banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 739-749, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Younes, Yves, 1973. "On the Efficiency of a Monetary Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2), pages 149-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Martin Shubik, 2000. "The Theory of Money," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1253, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 203-20, April.
  24. Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik, 2000. "Default in a General Equilibrium Model with Incomplete Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1247, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eva Catarineu-Rabell & Patricia Jackson & Dimitrios P Tsomocos, . "Procyclicality and the new Basel Accord - banks' choice of loan rating system," Bank of England working papers 181, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Risk Assessment Model for Banks," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe11, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe13, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  5. F. H. Capie & D. P. Tsomocos & G. E. Wood, 2005. "Modelling Institutional Change in the Payments System, and its Implications for Monetary Policy," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe01, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe18, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  7. F H Capie & Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Geoffrey E Wood, . "E-barter versus fiat money: will central banks survive?," Bank of England working papers 197, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  8. C.A.E. Goodhart & P. Sunirand & D.P. Tsomocos, 2008. "The Optimal Monetary Instrument for Prudential Purposes," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe26, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Lea Zicchino, 2005. "A model of bank capital, lending and the macro economy: Basel I versus Basel II," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 88, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility: Applications," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe05, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  11. O. Aspachs & C. Goodhart & M. Segoviano & D. Tsomocos & L. Zicchino, 2006. "Searching for a Metric for Financial Stability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe09, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Oriol Aspachs & Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2006. "Towards a Measure of Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe04, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Sudipto Bhattacharya & Charles A. E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2006. "Banks, Relative Performance, and Sequential Contagion," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe10, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Dimitrios Tsomocos & C.A.E. Goodhart, 2007. "Analysis of Financial Stability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2007fe04, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Adam Głogowski, 2008. "Macroeconomic determinants of Polish banks’ loan losses – results of a panel data study," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 53, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute. [Downloadable!]
  16. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & F.H. Capie & Geoffrey E. Wood, 2003. "E-Barter vs. Fiat Money: Will Central Banks Survive?," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe04, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  17. Gregor Irwin & David Vines, . "The efficient resolution of capital account crises: how to avoid moral hazard," Bank of England working papers 233, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "On Modelling Endogenous Default," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe15, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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