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Towards a measure of financial fragility

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  • Oriol Aspachs
  • Charles Goodhart
  • Dimitrios Tsomocos
  • Lea Zicchino

    ()

Abstract

This paper proposes a measure of financial fragility that is based on economic welfare in a general equilbrium model calibrated against UK data. The model comprises a household sector, three active heterogeneous banks, a central bank/regulator, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy, credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors and how the response of the economy to shocks relates to our measure of financial fragility. Finally we use panel VAR techniques to investigate the relationships between the factors that characterise financial fragility in our model, i.e. banks’ probabilities of default and banks’ profits - to a proxy of welfare.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Annals of Finance.

Volume (Year): 3 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 37-74

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Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:3:y:2007:i:1:p:37-74

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=112370

Related research

Keywords: Financial fragility; Banks; Regulatory policy; Monetary policy; Equilibrium analysis; C33; C68; E4; E5; G11; G21;

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References

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  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  2. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  3. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
  4. Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking, Contagion and Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  5. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-FE-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2004. "Loan pricing under Basel capital requirements," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 496-521, October.
  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Risk Assessment Model for Banks," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe11, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  9. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "On Modelling Endogenous Default," Economics Series Working Papers 2005-FE-15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility: applications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24680, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, January.
  12. Kevin C. Murdock & Thomas F. Hellmann & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2000. "Liberalization, Moral Hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are Capital Requirements Enough?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 147-165, March.
  13. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
  14. Allen, William A. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2006. "Defining and achieving financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 152-172, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Patro, Dilip K. & Qi, Min & Sun, Xian, 2013. "A simple indicator of systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 105-116.
  2. Eric Tymoigne, 2012. "Measuring Macroprudential Risk through Financial Fragility: A Minskyan Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_716, Levy Economics Institute.
  3. Castrén, Olli & Dées, Stéphane & Zaher, Fadi, 2010. "Stress-testing euro area corporate default probabilities using a global macroeconomic model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 64-78, June.
  4. C.A.E. Goodhart & P. Sunirand & D.P. Tsomocos, 2008. "The Optimal Monetary Instrument for Prudential Purposes," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe26, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  5. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
  6. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
  7. Susan Schroeder, 2009. "Defining and detecting financial fragility: New Zealand's experience," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 287-307, January.
  8. Eric Tymoigne, 2010. "Detecting Ponzi Finance: An Evolutionary Approach to the Measure of Financial Fragility," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_605, Levy Economics Institute.

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