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Towards a Measure of Financial Fragility

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  • Dimitrios P Tsomocos

Abstract

This paper proposes a measure of financial fragility that is based on economic welfare in a general equilibrium model calibrated against UK data. The model comprises a household sector, three active heterogeneous banks, a central bank/regulator, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy, credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors and how the response of the economy to shocks relates to our measure of financial fragility. Finally we use panel VAR techniques to investigate the relationships between the factors that characterise financial fragility in our model, i.e. banks` probabilities of default and banks` profits - to a proxy of welfare.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number 2006-FE-04.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:2006-fe-04

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Keywords: Financial fragility; Banks; Regulatory policy; Monetary policy; Equilibrium analysis;

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References

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  1. Dimitrios P Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking, contagion and financial fragility," Bank of England working papers 175, Bank of England.
  2. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2004. "A Risk Assessment Model for Banks," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  4. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Sunirand, Pojanart & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility: applications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September.
  5. Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-FE-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2004. "Loan pricing under Basel capital requirements," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 496-521, October.
  7. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A time series analysis of financial fragility in the UK banking system," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24778, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "On modelling endogenous default," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24667, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  10. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
  11. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  12. Allen, William A. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2006. "Defining and achieving financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 152-172, June.
  13. Kevin C. Murdock & Thomas F. Hellmann & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2000. "Liberalization, Moral Hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are Capital Requirements Enough?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 147-165, March.
  14. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Eric Tymoigne, 2012. "Measuring Macroprudential Risk through Financial Fragility: A Minskyan Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_716, Levy Economics Institute.
  2. C.A.E. Goodhart & P. Sunirand & D.P. Tsomocos, 2008. "The Optimal Monetary Instrument for Prudential Purposes," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe26, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  3. Susan Schroeder, 2009. "Defining and detecting financial fragility: New Zealand's experience," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 287-307, January.
  4. Eric Tymoigne, 2010. "Detecting Ponzi Finance: An Evolutionary Approach to the Measure of Financial Fragility," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_605, Levy Economics Institute.
  5. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Castrén, Olli & Dées, Stéphane & Zaher, Fadi, 2010. "Stress-testing euro area corporate default probabilities using a global macroeconomic model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 64-78, June.
  7. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
  8. Patro, Dilip K. & Qi, Min & Sun, Xian, 2013. "A simple indicator of systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 105-116.

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