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Distress in the financial sector and economic activity

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  • Mark A. Carlson
  • Thomas B. King
  • Kurt F. Lewis

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between the health of the financial sector and the rest of the economy. We develop an indicator of financial sector health using a distance-to-default measure based on a Merton-style option pricing model. Our measure spans over three decades and appears to capture periods when financial sector institutions were strong and when they were weak. We then use vector autoregressions to assess whether our indicator of financial-sector health affects the real economy, in particular non-residential investment. The results indicate that our measure has a considerable impact. Moreover, we find that this financial channel amplifies changes in investment resulting from shocks to non-financial firm profitability.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2009-01.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2009-01

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Keywords: Fiscal policy ; Government spending policy;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Claudio Borio & Claudio Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Towards an operational framework for financial stability: "fuzzy" measurement and its consequences," BIS Working Papers 284, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Carlos Esteban Posada & Jorge Andrés Tamayo C., 2009. "La crisis reciente de Estados Unidos (2007-2008): redescubriendo la importancia del mercado de "fondos prestables"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005388, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Jean-Michel Sahut & Medhi Mili & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions ?," Working Papers 2014-324, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  4. Holló, Dániel & Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
  5. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4534-4555.
  6. Reinout De Bock & Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 12/71, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2012. "Asymmetric Information in Credit Markets, Bank Leverage Cycles and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62035, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  8. Jaromir Baxa & Roman Horvath & Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Time-Varying Monetary-Policy Rules and Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter for Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2011/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  9. Piti Disyatat, 2011. "The Bank Lending Channel Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 711-734, 06.
  10. Vallascas, Francesco & Keasey, Kevin, 2012. "Bank resilience to systemic shocks and the stability of banking systems: Small is beautiful," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1745-1776.
  11. Marco Lombardi & Raphael A. Espinoza & Fabio Fornari, 2009. "The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/241, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Yasin Mimir, 2013. "Financial Intermediaries, Credit Shocks and Business Cycles," Working Papers 1313, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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