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Distress in the financial sector and economic activity

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Author Info
Mark A. Carlson
Thomas B. King
Kurt F. Lewis

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Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between the health of the financial sector and the rest of the economy. We develop an index of financial sector health using a distance-to-default measure based on a Merton-style option pricing model. Our index spans over three decades and appears to capture periods when financial sector institutions were strong and when they were weak. We then use vector autoregressions to assess whether our index of financial-sector health affects the real economy, in particular non-residential investment. The results indicate that our index has a considerable impact. Moreover, we find that this financial channel amplifies changes in investment resulting from shocks to non-financial firm profitability.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2008-43.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-43

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Keywords: Financial markets ; Financial institutions;

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  17. Marco Cagetti & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2006. "Entrepreneurship, Frictions, and Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 835-870, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 8876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Meh, Cesaire A. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2006. "Endogenous market incompleteness with investment risks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2143-2165, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Aiyagari, S Rao, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-84, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Vincenzo Quadrini, 2000. "Entrepreneurship, Saving and Social Mobility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-40, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Carlos Esteban Posada P. & Jorge Andrés Tamayo C. Author- Email: jtamayca@banrep.gov.co, . "La crisis reciente de Estados Unidos (2007-2008): redescubriendo la importancia del mercado de "fondos prestables"," Borradores de Economia 554, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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