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Idiosyncratic Production Risk, Growth and the Business Cycle

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George-Marios Angeletos
Laurent E. Calvet

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Abstract

We introduce a neoclassical growth economy with idiosyncratic production risk and incomplete markets. The general equilibrium is characterized in closed form. Uninsurable production shocks introduce a risk premium on private equity and typically result in a lower steady-state level of capital than under complete markets. In the presence of such risks, the anticipation of low investment and high interest rates in the future discourages risk-taking and feeds back into low investment in the present. An endogenous macroeconomic complementarity thus arises, which slows down convergence and amplifies the magnitude and persistence of the business cycle. These results — contrasting sharply with those of Aiyagari (1994) and Krusell and Smith (1998) — highlight that idiosyncratic production or capital-income risk can have significant adverse effects on capital accumulation and aggregate volatility. Keywords: Capital income, Entrepreneurial risk, Fluctuations, Growth, Investment, Precautionary savings.

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Paper provided by Harvard - Institute of Economic Research in its series Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers with number 1952.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fth:harver:1952

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Thesmar, David & Thoenig, Mathias, 2009. "Contrasting Trends in Firm Volatility: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 7135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Singh, Aarti, 2008. "Human capital risk in life-cycle economies," MPRA Paper 10292, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Juan-Carlos Cordoba, 2004. "Debt-Constraints or Incomplete Markets? A Decomposition of the Wealth and Consumption Inequality in the U.S," Macroeconomics 0404004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christian Hellwig, 2002. "Signaling in a Global Game: Coordination and Policy Traps (J.P.E., June 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 209, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Caterina Mendicino, 2008. "On the Amplification Role of Collateral Constraints," Working Papers 08-23, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Fabià Gumbau-Brisa, 2005. "Heterogeneous beliefs and inflation dynamics: a general equilibrium approach," Working Papers 05-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  7. M. Fatih Guvenen, 2002. "Does Stockholding Provide Perfect Risk Sharing?," RCER Working Papers 490, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER), revised Mar 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Francisco Covas & Shigeru Fujita, 2007. "Private risk premium and aggregate uncertainty in the model of uninsurable investment risk," Working Papers 07-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Anthony A. Smith, Jr., 2003. "The Research Agenda: Business Cycles and Inequality," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(2), April. [Downloadable!]
  10. Tom Krebs, 2006. "Recursive equilibrium in endogenous growth models with incomplete markets," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 505-523, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Dzhumashev, Ratbek, 2008. "Corruption and Disposable Risk," MPRA Paper 11772, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Eva Carceles-Poveda, 2009. "Asset Prices and Business Cycles under Market Incompleteness," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(3), pages 405-422, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Francisco Covas, 2005. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Production Risk with Borrowing Constraints," Working Papers 05-26, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  14. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2003. "Coordination and Policy Traps," NBER Working Papers 9767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Mark A. Carlson & Thomas B. King & Kurt F. Lewis, 2009. "Distress in the financial sector and economic activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  16. George-Marios Angeletos & Laurent-Emmanuel Calvet, 2004. "Incomplete Market Dynamics in a Neoclassical Production Economy," NBER Working Papers 11016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. George-Marios Angeletos, 2005. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Investment Risk," NBER Working Papers 11180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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