Is the Distance to Default a Good Measure in Predicting Bank Failures? Case Studies
AbstractThis paper examines the movements of the Distance to Default (DD), a market-based measure of corporate default risk, of eight failed Japanese banks in order to evaluate the predictive power of the DD measure for bank failures. The DD became smaller in anticipation of failure in many cases. The DD spread, defined as the DD of a failed bank minus the DD of sound banks, was also a useful indicator for deterioration of a failed bank’s health. For some banks, neither the DD nor the DD spread predicted the failures. However, those results were partly due to lack of transparency in financial statements and disclosed information.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16182.
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Note: IFM ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006.
"Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
- Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Working Paper Series 0150, European Central Bank.
- Mark M. Spiegel & Nobuyoshi Yamori, 2004. "The Evolution Of Bank Resolution Policies In Japan: Evidence From Market Equity Values," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 115-132.
- Mark Spiegel & Nobuyoshi Yamori, 2001.
"The impact of Japan's financial stabilization laws on bank equity values,"
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series
2001-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Mark M. Spiegel & Nobuyoshi Yamori, 2002. "The impact of Japan’s financial stabilization laws on bank equity values," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
- Spiegel, Mark M. & Yamori, Nobuyoshi, 2003. "The impact of Japan's financial stabilization laws on bank equity values," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 263-282, September.
- Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 2004. "Corporate Financing and Governance in Japan: The Road to the Future," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582481, January.
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1998.
"Determinants of the Japan premium: actions speak louder than words,"
98-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S., 2001. "Determinants of the Japan premium: actions speak louder than words," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 283-305, April.
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1999. "Determinants of the Japan Premium: Actions Speak Louder Than Words," NBER Working Papers 7251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mitsuhiro FUKAO, 2007. "Financial Crisis and the Lost Decade," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 2(2), pages 273-297.
- Thomas F. Cargill & Michael M. Hutchison & Takatoshi Ito, 2001. "Financial Policy and Central Banking in Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262032856, January.
- Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi, 2004. "Financial regulation in Japan: a sixth year review of the Financial Services Agency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 229-243, December.
- Amadou N. R. Sy & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2006. "Distance-to-Default in Banking: A Bridge Too Far?," IMF Working Papers 06/215, International Monetary Fund.
- Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Srobona Mitra & Li L. Ong, 2007. "Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London as a Global Financial Center," IMF Working Papers 07/74, International Monetary Fund.
- Gianni De NicolÃ³ & Alexander F. Tieman, 2006. "Economic Integration and Financial Stability: A European Perspective," IMF Working Papers 06/296, International Monetary Fund.
- Thomas F. Cargill & Michael M. Hutchison & Takatoshi Ito, 1997. "The Political Economy of Japanese Monetary Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262032473, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.