Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Systemic Risk Analysis using Forward-Looking Distance-to-Default Series

Contents:

Author Info

  • Martín Saldías

Abstract

Based on Contingent Claims Analysis, this paper develops a method to monitor systemic risk in the European banking system. Aggregated Distance-to-Default series are generated using option prices information from systemically important banks and the STOXX Europe 600 Banks Index. These indicators provide methodological advantages in monitoring vulnerabilities in the banking system over time: 1) they capture interdependences and joint risk of distress in systemically important banks; 2) their forward-looking feature endow them with early signaling properties compared to traditional approaches in the literature and other market-based indicators; 3) they produce simultaneously smooth and informative long-term signals and quick and clear reaction to market distress and 4) they incorporate additional information through option prices about tail risk and correlation breaks, in line with recent findings in the literature.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/wp201216.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w201216.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201216

Contact details of provider:
Postal: R. do Ouro, 27, 1100 LISBOA
Phone: 21 321 32 00
Fax: 21 346 48 43
Email:
Web page: http://www.bportugal.pt
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Campbell, John Y. & Hilscher, Jens & Szilagyi, Jan, 2005. "In search of distress risk," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Agyei-Ampomah, Sam & Mazouz, Khelifa, 2011. "The comovement of option listed stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2056-2069, August.
  3. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  4. Mathias Drehmann & Nikola Tarashev, 2011. "Systemic importance: some simple indicators," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  5. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2008. "Using Securities Market Information for Bank Supervisory Monitoring," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 125-164, March.
  6. Andreas A. Jobst & Dale F. Gray, 2013. "Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis – Estimating Market-Implied Systemic Risk," IMF Working Papers 13/54, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  8. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 193-205.
  9. Martin Cihák & Petya Koeva Brooks, 2009. "From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/69, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Christian Capuano, 2008. "The option-iPoD. The Probability of Default Implied by Option Prices based on Entropy," IMF Working Papers 08/194, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2004. "Does Net Buying Pressure Affect the Shape of Implied Volatility Functions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 711-753, 04.
  12. Kelly, Bryan & Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2012. "Too-Systemic-To-Fail: What Option Markets Imply About Sector-wide Government Guarantees," CEPR Discussion Papers 9023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Matthias Fengler & Helmut Herwartz & Christian Werner, 2010. "A dynamic copula approach to recovering the index implied volatility skew," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2010 1132, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen, revised Nov 2011.
  14. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Towards an Operational Framework for Financial Stability: "Fuzzy" Measurement and its Consequences," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 544, Central Bank of Chile.
  15. Martin CIHAK, 2007. "Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 5-26, March.
  16. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Toni Gravelle, 2005. "The END: A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 05/231, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2007. "Measuring financial asset return and volatility spillovers, with application to global equity markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  19. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
  20. Gianni De Nicoló & Alexander F. Tieman, 2006. "Economic Integration and Financial Stability: A European Perspective," IMF Working Papers 06/296, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Yu, Wayne W. & Lui, Evans C.K. & Wang, Jacqueline W., 2010. "The predictive power of the implied volatility of options traded OTC and on exchanges," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-11, January.
  22. Kavonius, Ilja Kristian & Castrén, Olli, 2009. "Balance Sheet Interlinkages and Macro-Financial Risk Analysis in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1124, European Central Bank.
  23. Nikola Tarashev & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2010. "Attributing systemic risk to individual institutions," BIS Working Papers 308, Bank for International Settlements.
  24. Tudela, Merxe & Garry Young, 2003. "A Merton Model Approach to Assessing the Default Risk of UK Public Companies," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 207, Royal Economic Society.
  25. Becker, Ralf & Clements, Adam E. & McClelland, Andrew, 2009. "The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1033-1038, June.
  26. Marcos Souto & Rodolphe Blavy, 2009. "Estimating Default Frequencies and Macrofinancial Linkages in the Mexican Banking Sector," IMF Working Papers 09/109, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Kimie Harada & Takatoshi Ito, 2008. "Did Mergers Help Japanese Mega-Banks Avoid Failure? Analysis of the Distance to Default of Banks," NBER Working Papers 14518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Blix Grimaldi, Marianna, 2010. "Detecting and interpreting financial stress in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1214, European Central Bank.
  29. Amadou N. R. Sy & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2006. "Distance-to-Default in Banking: A Bridge Too Far?," IMF Working Papers 06/215, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
  31. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2010. "Macroprudential policy - a literature review," DNB Working Papers 267, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  32. Tiago Severo, 2012. "Measuring Systemic Liquidity Risk and the Cost of Liquidity Insurance," IMF Working Papers 12/194, International Monetary Fund.
  33. Adam S. Posen & Nicolas Veron, 2009. "A Solution for Europe's Banking Problem," Policy Briefs PB09-13, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  34. Jin-Chuan Duan, 1994. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Price Data Of The Derivative Contract," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 155-167.
  35. Reint Gropp & Vesala Jukka & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market Indicators, Bank Fragility, and Indirect Market Discipline," Finance 0411015, EconWPA.
  36. Charles Goodhart & Miguel Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," FMG Discussion Papers dp627, Financial Markets Group.
  37. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
  38. Srobona Mitra & Elena Duggar, 2007. "External Linkages and Contagion Risk in Irish Banks," IMF Working Papers 07/44, International Monetary Fund.
  39. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
  40. Kimie Harada & Takatoshi Ito & Shuhei Takahashi, 2010. "Is the Distance to Default a Good Measure in Predicting Bank Failures? Case Studies," NBER Working Papers 16182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
  42. Dale F. Gray & James P Walsh, 2008. "Factor Model for Stress-testing with a Contingent Claims Model of the Chilean Banking System," IMF Working Papers 08/89, International Monetary Fund.
  43. Nikola Tarashev & Mathias Drehmann, 2011. "Measuring the systemic importance of interconnected banks," BIS Working Papers 342, Bank for International Settlements.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Martín Saldías, 2011. "A Market-based Approach to Sector Risk Determinants and Transmission in the Euro Area," Working Papers w201130, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Patro, Dilip K. & Qi, Min & Sun, Xian, 2013. "A simple indicator of systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 105-116.
  3. Vallascas, Francesco & Keasey, Kevin, 2012. "Bank resilience to systemic shocks and the stability of banking systems: Small is beautiful," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1745-1776.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (DEE-NTDD).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.