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The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment

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  • Rendu de Lint, Christel
  • Stolin, David
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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBW-49N9BCR-1/2/17b48e5f95d61a68936f557849b43408
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

    Volume (Year): 50 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 7 (October)
    Pages: 1603-1622

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:50:y:2003:i:7:p:1603-1622

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Donaldson, John B. & Johnsen, Thore & Mehra, Rajnish, 1990. "On the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 571-596, October.
    3. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
    6. Pamela Labadie, 1991. "The term structure of interest rates over the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 159, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. den Haan, Wouter J., 1995. "The term structure of interest rates in real and monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 909-940.
    8. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
    9. Campbell, John Y, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 785-803, November.
    10. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Smith, Lance, 1987. "On the superneutrality of money in a stochastic dynamic macroeconomic model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 475-499, December.
    11. Chapman, David A., 1997. "The cyclical properties of consumption growth and the real term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 145-172, July.
    12. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    14. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April.
    15. Chay Fisher & Bruce Felmingham, 1998. "The Australian yield curve as a leading indicator of consumption growth," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 627-635.
    16. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Hiroshi Nakaota & Yuichi Fukuta, 2013. "The Leading Indicator Property of the Term Spread and the Monetary Policy Factors in Japan," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-09-Rev, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    2. Kao, Yi-Cheng & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Chen, Shikuan, 2013. "Testing the predictive power of the term structure without data snooping bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 546-549.
    3. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
    4. Huseyin Kaya, 2013. "On the Predictive Power of Yield Spread for Future Growth and Recession: The Turkish Case," Working Papers 010, Bahcesehir University, Betam, revised Mar 2013.
    5. Ekaterini Panopoulou & B. Groom & P. Koundouri & Theologos Pantelidis, 2005. "Discounting the distant future: How much does model selection affect the certainty equivalent rate?," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1480105, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    6. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 419-440.
    7. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Pederzoli, Chiara & Torricelli, Costanza, 2005. "Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3121-3140, December.
    9. Hiroshi Nakaota & Yuichi Fukuta, 2013. "The Leading Indicator Property of the Term Spread and the Monetary Policy Factors in Japan," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-09, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), revised Jul 2013.
    10. Leo Krippner & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. Nakaota, Hiroshi & Fukuta, Yuichi, 2013. "The leading indicator property of the term spread and the monetary policy factors in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 85-98.
    12. Leo Krippner, 2005. "A New Framework for Yield Curve, Output and Inflation Relationships," Working Papers in Economics 05/07, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
    13. Amihud, Yakov & Hurvich, Clifford M. & Wang, Yi, 2010. "Predictive regression with order-p autoregressive predictors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 513-525, June.
    14. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile.

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