Bridging the banking sector with the real economy: a financial stability perspective
AbstractThis paper builds a macro-prudential tool designed to assess whether the banking sector is adequately prepared to orderly withstand losses resulting from normal or stressed macroeconomic and microeconomic scenarios. The link between the banking sector and the real sector is established via the corporate sector channel. The macro-prudential tool consists of a two-step approach. In the first step, we build a model for the probability of default (PD) in the corporate sector, so as to quantify oneyear ahead developments in the quality of banks' corporate loans. The framework is established using micro data, with a bottom-up approach. The second step consists of bridging the PD model with a macroeconomic module in order to capture the feedback effects from the macroeconomic stance into the banking sector, via the corporate sector channel. The macro-prudential tool is tested on the Romanian economy. JEL Classification: G32, G21, E17
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1592.
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-11-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2013-11-16 (Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2013-11-16 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Virolainen , Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
- Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, 2003. "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England.
- Malhotra, Manoj K. & Sharma, Subhash & Nair, Satish S., 1999. "Decision making using multiple models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-14, April.
- de Bandt, O. & Bruneau, C. & El Amri, W., 2008.
"Stress testing and corporate finance,"
Journal of Financial Stability,
Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 258-274, September.
- Romulus Mircea, 2008. "Credit risk of non-financial companies in the context of financial stability," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 4, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
- Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
- David Vivet, 2011. "Development of a financial health indicator based on companies’ annual accounts," Working Paper Document 213, National Bank of Belgium.
- Lennox, Clive, 1999. "Identifying failing companies: a re-evaluation of the logit, probit and DA approaches," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 347-364, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.