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The JT Index as an Indicator of Financial Stability of Corporate Sector

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  • Petr Jakubík
  • Petr Teplý

Abstract

This paper presents the construction of a new indicator (named the JT index) evaluating the economy´s financial stability, which is based on a financial scoring model estimated on Czech corporate accounting data. Seven financial indicators capable of explaining business failure at a 1-year prediction horizon are identified. Using the model estimated in this way, an aggregate indicator of the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector (the JT index) is then constructed and its evolution over time is shown. This indicator aids the estimation of the risks of this sector going forward and broadens the existing analytical set-up used by the Czech National Bank for its financial stability analyses. The results suggest that the creditworthiness of the Czech corporate sector steadily improved between 2004 and 2006. However, the JT index for 2007 and 2008 deteriorated what could be explained through global market turbulences while the further decrease in 2009 rather by the global recession. The used methodology for the construction of the JT index might be suitable for decision makers when evaluating the economy´s financial stability. Although our research is done as a case study on the Czech Republic, its basic idea might be easily applied to other countries as well.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 2011 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 157-176

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Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2011:y:2011:i:2:id:394:p:157-176

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Related research

Keywords: logit analysis; JT index; financial stability; corporate sector risk; bankruptcy prediction;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jan Babecky & Alena Bicakova & Alexis Derviz & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Jakub Mateju & Ke Pang & Renata Pasalicova & Zuzana Prelcova & Marie Rakova & Pierre, 2011. "Macro-Financial Linkages: Theory and Applications," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 9, number rb09/2 edited by Jan Babecky, August.
  2. Milan Šimáček, 2012. "Financial Stress Indexes for the Czech Republic and Hungary," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(5), pages 614-634.

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