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Prediction of company failure: Past, present and promising directions for the future

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  • Jayasekera, Ranadeva

Abstract

The quest for a reliable tool that can predict company failure has been pursued with keen interest both by academics and practitioners for a more than a century. This paper presents a survey of the key papers published on bankruptcy prediction from a critical perspective and discusses models published in the academic literature, are frequently cited and considered to have made a significant contribution to the literature on business failure. This study provides an overview of the significant models, conducts a critical discussion of these models highlighting their virtues and drawbacks. The paper concludes with the author outlining the basic concept of a "Value Erosion Model", where ‘value’ is defined as the future potential of a firm and argues that such a model can address some of the significant drawbacks associated with existing models, offering interesting avenues for future research in the development of an academically robust practically applicable bankruptcy prediction model.

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  • Jayasekera, Ranadeva, 2018. "Prediction of company failure: Past, present and promising directions for the future," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 196-208.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:196-208
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2017.08.009
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    5. Wei Xu & Yuchen Pan & Wenting Chen & Hongyong Fu, 2019. "Forecasting Corporate Failure in the Chinese Energy Sector: A Novel Integrated Model of Deep Learning and Support Vector Machine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-20, June.
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    7. Oliver Lukason & Germo Valgenberg, 2021. "Failure Prediction in the Condition of Information Asymmetry: Tax Arrears as a Substitute When Financial Ratios Are Outdated," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-13, October.
    8. Tomasz Korol, 2019. "Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Khoja, Layla & Chipulu, Maxwell & Jayasekera, Ranadeva, 2019. "Analysis of financial distress cross countries: Using macroeconomic, industrial indicators and accounting data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bankruptcy prediction; Financial distress; Accounting based statistical models; Market based models; Value erosion model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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