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Comparing the performance of market-based and accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models

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  • Agarwal, Vineet
  • Taffler, Richard
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    Abstract

    Recently developed corporate bankruptcy prediction models adopt a contingent claims valuation approach. However, despite their theoretical appeal, tests of their performance compared with traditional simple accounting-ratio-based approaches are limited in the literature. We find the two approaches capture different aspects of bankruptcy risk, and while there is little difference in their predictive ability in the UK, the z-score approach leads to significantly greater bank profitability in conditions of differential decision error costs and competitive pricing regime.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 8 (August)
    Pages: 1541-1551

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:8:p:1541-1551

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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    References

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    1. Michel Dacorogna & Gianluca Oderda & Tobias Jung, 2003. "Credit Risk Models - Do They Deliver Their Promises? A Quantitative Assessment," Risk and Insurance 0306003, EconWPA.
    2. Blochlinger, Andreas & Leippold, Markus, 2006. "Economic benefit of powerful credit scoring," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 851-873, March.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
    4. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
    5. Taffler, Richard J., 1984. "Empirical models for the monitoring of UK corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 199-227, June.
    6. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
    7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    8. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
    9. Stein, Roger M., 2005. "The relationship between default prediction and lending profits: Integrating ROC analysis and loan pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1213-1236, May.
    10. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    11. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
    12. Altman, Edward I., 2001. "Credit ratings and the proposed new BIS guidelines on capital adequacy for bank credit assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-2, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Orth, Walter, 2011. "Multi-period credit default prediction with time-varying covariates," MPRA Paper 30507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Li, Ming-Yuan Leon & Miu, Peter, 2010. "A hybrid bankruptcy prediction model with dynamic loadings on accounting-ratio-based and market-based information: A binary quantile regression approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 818-833, September.
    3. Betz, Frank & Oprica, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "Predicting distress in European banks," Working Paper Series 1597, European Central Bank.
    4. Glaser, Markus & Müller, Sebastian, 2010. "Is the diversification discount caused by the book value bias of debt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2307-2317, October.
    5. Bauer, Julian & Agarwal, Vineet, 2014. "Are hazard models superior to traditional bankruptcy prediction approaches? A comprehensive test," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 432-442.
    6. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2011. "The term structure of banking crisis risk in the United States: A market data based compound option approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 876-885, April.
    7. Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Reyes Samaniego-Medina & Clara Cardone-Riportella, 2012. "Examining what best explains corporate credit risk: accounting-based versus market-based models," Working Papers 12.03, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
    8. Hernandez Tinoco, Mario & Wilson, Nick, 2013. "Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction among listed companies using accounting, market and macroeconomic variables," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 394-419.
    9. Chen, Jie & Hill, Paula, 2013. "The impact of diverse measures of default risk on UK stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5118-5131.
    10. Harada, Kimie & Ito, Takatoshi & Takahashi, Shuhei, 2013. "Is the Distance to Default a good measure in predicting bank failures? A case study of Japanese major banks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 70-82.
    11. Maltritz, Dominik, 2010. "A compound option approach to model the interrelation between banking crises and country defaults: The case of Hungary 2008," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3025-3036, December.
    12. Huang, Hsing-Hua & Lee, Han-Hsing, 2013. "Product market competition and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 324-340.
    13. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Jhao-Siang Siao & Huimin Chung & C. Chu, 2011. "Assessing bankruptcy prediction models via information content of technical inefficiency," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 263-273, December.
    14. du Jardin, Philippe, 2009. "Bankruptcy prediction models: How to choose the most relevant variables?," MPRA Paper 44380, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Evangelos C. Charalambakis, 2013. "On the prediction of corporate financial distress in the light of the financial crisis: empirical evidence from Greek listed firms," Working Papers 164, Bank of Greece.
    16. Taein Kwon & Sanghyo Lee & Jaejun Kim, 2013. "The characteristics of changes in construction companies to become insolvent by size following macroeconomic fluctuations," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 082-092.
    17. du Jardin, Philippe & Séverin, Eric, 2010. "Dynamic analysis of the business failure process: A study of bankruptcy trajectories," MPRA Paper 44379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Cole, Rebel A. & Wu, Qiongbing, 2009. "Is hazard or probit more accurate in predicting financial distress? Evidence from U.S. bank failures," MPRA Paper 24688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2010.
    19. Malcolm Smith & Yun Ren & Yinan Dong, 2011. "The predictive ability of “conservatism” and “governance” variables in corporate financial disclosures," Asian Review of Accounting, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 19(2), pages 171-185, September.
    20. Charitou, Andreas & Dionysiou, Dionysia & Lambertides, Neophytos & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2013. "Alternative bankruptcy prediction models using option-pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2329-2341.
    21. Das, Sanjiv R. & Hanouna, Paul & Sarin, Atulya, 2009. "Accounting-based versus market-based cross-sectional models of CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 719-730, April.
    22. repec:pab:wpbsad:12.07 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Fu, Xiaoqing (Maggie) & Lin, Yongjia (Rebecca) & Molyneux, Philip, 2014. "Bank competition and financial stability in Asia Pacific," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 64-77.

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