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On the Prediction of Corporate Financial Distress in the Light of the Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence from Greek Listed Firms

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  • Evangelos C. Charalambakis

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of accounting and market-driven information on the prediction of bankruptcy for Greek firms using the discrete hazard approach. The findings show that a hazard model that incorporates three accounting ratio components of Z-score and three market-driven variables is the most appropriate model for the prediction of corporate financial distress in Greece. This model outperforms a univariate model that uses the expected default frequency (EDF) derived from the Merton distance to default model, a multivariate model that is exclusively based on accounting variables, a model that combines the EDF and accounting variables, and a multivariate model that uses only market-driven variables. Classification accuracy and bankruptcy forecast tests confirm the main results. The model is also able to sustain high long-term performance when augmenting the forecast horizon from one to two and three years.

Suggested Citation

  • Evangelos C. Charalambakis, 2015. "On the Prediction of Corporate Financial Distress in the Light of the Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence from Greek Listed Firms," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 407-428, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ijecbs:v:22:y:2015:i:3:p:407-428
    DOI: 10.1080/13571516.2015.1020131
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitris Papageorgiou & Stylianos Tsiaras, 2021. "The Greek Great Depression from a neoclassical perspective," Working Papers 286, Bank of Greece.
    2. Venkata Mrudula Bhimavarapu & Shailesh Rastogi & Jagjeevan Kanoujiya & Aashi Rawal, 2023. "Repercussion of financial distress and corporate disclosure on the valuation of non-financial firms in India," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Angeliki Papana & Anastasia Spyridou, 2020. "Bankruptcy Prediction: The Case of the Greek Market," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Evangelos C. Charalambakis & Ian Garrett, 2019. "On corporate financial distress prediction: What can we learn from private firms in a developing economy? Evidence from Greece," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 467-491, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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