Using Option Theory and Fundamentals to Assessing Default Risk of Listed Firms
AbstractIn this paper, we use option based measures of financial performance that utilize market information in a binary probit regression to examine their informational context and properties as distress indicators and to estimate default probabilities for listed firms. Then, we enrich them with fundamentals that utilize accounting information. The results suggest that by adding accounting information from financial statements to market information from equity prices we can improve both in sample fitting and out of sample predictability of defaults. Therefore, option theory does not generate sufficient statistics of the actual default frequency. Our main conclusion is that while market information can be extremely valuable, it is most useful when coupled with accounting information in assessing default risk of listed firms.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 453.
Date of creation: Oct 2005
Date of revision: Jun 2006
option theory; fundamentals; default risk;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Accounting - - - Accounting
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ACC-2006-11-12 (Accounting & Auditing)
- NEP-ALL-2006-11-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-RMG-2006-11-12 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Alexandros Benos & George Papanastasopoulos, 2005. "Extending the Merton Model: A Hybrid Approach to Assessing Credit Quality," Finance 0505020, EconWPA, revised 03 Jun 2005.
- Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
- Saikat Nandi, 1998. "Valuation models for default-risky securities: An overview," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 22-35.
- Franks, Julian R. & Torous, Walter N., 1994. "A comparison of financial recontracting in distressed exchanges and chapter 11 reorganizations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 349-370, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.