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Brexit and financial stability: An agent-based simulation

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  • Samitas, Aristeidis
  • Polyzos, Stathis
  • Siriopoulos, Costas

Abstract

As the UK and the EU prepare to start negotiations for Brexit, it is important for both sides to comprehend the full extent of the consequences of this process. In this paper, we employ an agent based simulation framework in order to test for the short-term and long-term effects of Brexit on financial stability on both sides of the Channel. The relative strength of the UK economy and the banking sector vis-à-vis the EU is taken under consideration. Our results confirm predictions in the relevant literature regarding the output cost of Brexit, with particular emphasis on the EU, and show that financial stability is an important issue, with the banking system suffering significant losses on both sides, particularly over the longer term. Our findings also suggest that policymakers should take into account dynamic effects that may be caused by UK banks moving to the EU after Brexit. The model results show that if banks in the UK chose to move across the Channel, the negative effects in the EU are mitigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Samitas, Aristeidis & Polyzos, Stathis & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2018. "Brexit and financial stability: An agent-based simulation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 181-192.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:181-192
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.09.019
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    2. Svitlana V. Onyshchuk & Igor I. Onyshchuk & Olha Petroye & Roman Chernysh, 2020. "Financial Stability and its Impact on National Security State: Organizational and Legal Aspects," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 353-365.
    3. Polyzos, Stathis & Samitas, Aristeidis & Katsaiti, Marina-Selini, 2020. "Who is unhappy for Brexit? A machine-learning, agent-based study on financial instability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Li, Hong, 2020. "Volatility spillovers across European stock markets under the uncertainty of Brexit," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1-12.
    5. Gao, Xiang & Hu, Yichuan & Wang, Huanhuan & Wang, Xiaohu, 2022. "Brexit and global equity fund capital reallocation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Latorre, María C. & Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Yonezawa, Hidemichi & Robinson, Sherman, 2020. "Making sense of Brexit losses: An in-depth review of macroeconomic studies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 72-87.
    7. Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Dassiou, Xeni & Zheng, Min, 2020. "Exchange-rate exposure and Brexit: The case of FTSE, DAX and IBEX," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Yao, Hongxing & Memon, Bilal Ahmed, 2019. "Network topology of FTSE 100 Index companies: From the perspective of Brexit," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1248-1262.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; Banking crises; Agent-based finance; Financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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