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Monetary Policy When Potential Output is Uncertain: Understanding the Growth Gamble of the 1990s

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Author Info
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Matthew D. Shapiro

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Abstract

The Fed kept interest rates low and essentially unchanged during the late 1990s despite a booming economy and record-low unemployment. These interest rates were accommodative by historical standards. Nonetheless, inflation remained low. How did the Fed succeed in sustaining rapid economic growth without fueling inflation and inflationary expectations? In retrospect, it is evident that the productive capacity of the economy increased. Yet as events unfolded, there was uncertainty about the expansion of the capacity of the economy and therefore about the sustainability of the Fed%u2019s policy. This paper provides an explanation for the success of the Fed in accommodating growth with stable inflation in the late 1990s. It shows that if the central bank is committed to reverse policy errors it makes because of unwarranted optimism, inflation can remain in check even if the central bank keeps interest rates low because of this optimism. In particular, a price level target%u2014which is a simple way to model a commitment to offset errors%u2014can serve to anchor inflation even if the public does not share the central bank%u2019s optimism about shifts in potential output. The paper shows that price level targeting is superior to inflation targeting in a wide range of situations. The paper also provides econometric evidence that, in contrast to earlier periods, the Fed has recently put substantial weight on the price level in setting interest rates. Moreover, it shows that CPI announcement surprises lead to reversion in the price level. Finally, it provides textual evidence that Alan Greenspan puts relatively more weight on the price level than inflation.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12268.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12268

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," NBER Working Papers 14621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2009. "The great inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom: reconciling policy decisions and data outcomes," Working Papers 2009-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow & Benjamin A. Malin, 2009. "Reset price inflation and the impact of monetary policy shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2009. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," NBER Working Papers 15049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. David O. Lucca & Francesco Trebbi, 2009. "Measuring Central Bank Communication: An Automated Approach with Application to FOMC Statements," NBER Working Papers 15367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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