Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy
Abstract
This paper examines the robustness characteristics of optimal control policies derived under the assumption of rational expectations to alternative models of expectations formation and uncertainty about the natural rates of interest and unemployment. We assume that agents have imperfect knowledge about the precise structure of the economy and form expectations using a forecasting model that they continuously update based on incoming data. We also allow for central bank uncertainty regarding the natural rates of interest and unemployment. We find that the optimal control policy derived under the assumption of perfect knowledge about the structure of the economy can perform poorly when knowledge is imperfect. These problems are exacerbated by natural rate uncertainty, even when the central bank's estimates of natural rates are efficient. We show that the optimal control approach can be made more robust to the presence of imperfect knowledge by deemphasizing the stabilization of real economic activity and interest rates relative to inflation in the central bank loss function. That is, robustness to the presence of imperfect knowledge about the economy provides an incentive to employ a "conservative" central banker. We then examine two types of simple monetary policy rules from the literature that have been found to be robust to model misspecification in other contexts. We find that these policies are robust to the alternative models of learning that we study and natural rate uncertainty and outperform the optimal control policy and generally perform as well as the robust optimal control policy that places less weight on stabilizing economic activity and interest rates.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by Central Bank of Cyprus in its series Working Papers with number 2008-5.Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2008-5
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.centralbank.gov.cy/nqcontent.cfm?a_id=1
More information through EDIRC
Related research
Keywords: Rational expectations; robust Control; model uncertainty; natural rate of unemployment; natural rate of interest;Other versions of this item:
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2009. "Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 4, pages 115-144 Central Bank of Chile.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Imperfect knowledge and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2008-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Imperfect Knowledge And The Pitfalls Of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 499, Central Bank of Chile.
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-01-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-01-03 (Central Banking)
- NEP-KNM-2009-01-03 (Knowledge Management & Knowledge Economy)
- NEP-MAC-2009-01-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-01-03 (Monetary Economics)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003.
"Robust monetary policy with competing reference models,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
- Andrew T. Levin & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- John C. Williams & Andrew T. Levin, 2003. "Robust Monetary Policy with Competing Reference Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 291, Society for Computational Economics.
- Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
- Alex Cukierman & Francesco Lippi, 2004.
"Endogenous monetary policy with unobserved potential output,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
493, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "Endogenous monetary policy with unobserved potential output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1951-1983, November.
- Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2003. "Endogenous Monetary Policy with Unobserved Potential Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 3763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alex Cukierman & Francesco Lippi, 2003. "Endogenous Monetary Policy with Unobserved Potential Output," CEIS Research Paper 26, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
- Taylor, John B., 1999.
"The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
- Taylor, John B., 1998. "The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank," Seminar Papers 649, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Ann-Charlotte Eliasson & Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton, 1999.
"Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty,"
IMF Working Papers
99/75, International Monetary Fund.
- Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 537-577, November.
- Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 841, Society for Computational Economics.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003.
"Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
9884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John Williams, 2004. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 201-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2002-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/40, Center for Financial Studies.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006.
"Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2006-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 4, pages 077-123 Central Bank of Chile.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-23.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2006. "Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge," CEPR Discussion Papers 5664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 2006-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 398, Central Bank of Chile.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 38, Society for Computational Economics.
- Robert J. Tetlow, 2010. "Real-time model uncertainty in the United States: 'Robust' policies put to the test," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Thomas Laubach, 2001.
"Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
- Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998.
"Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 6570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002.
"Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Richard D. Porter & David Reifschneider & Robert Tetlow & Frederico Finan, 1999.
"Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1999-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999.
"The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
Macroeconomics
9907006, EconWPA.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
- Andrew Levin & John C. Williams, 2000.
"The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1781, Econometric Society.
- Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
- John C. Williams & Andrew T. Levin & Volker Wieland, 2001. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 068, European Central Bank.
- Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/06, Center for Financial Studies.
- Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2001. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 2000. "The Performance Of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 203, Society for Computational Economics.
- Noah Williams & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005.
"Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2005
108, Society for Computational Economics.
- Svensson, Lars E O & Williams, Noah, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lars Svensson & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 11733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E. O. & Williams, Noah, 2005. "Monetary policy with model uncertainty: distribution forecast targeting," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,35, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002.
"Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics,"
NBER Chapters,
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 2132872, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Wooford, 2000.
"Indicator variables for optimal policy,"
Working Paper Series
12, European Central Bank.
- Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 691-720, April.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2000. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Svensson, Lars & Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," Seminar Papers 688, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2000. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005.
"Optimal policy projections,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2005-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
- Lars O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," NBER Working Papers 11392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars O & Tetlow, Robert J, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," MPRA Paper 839, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
- Milani, Fabio, 2007.
"Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
- Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Working Papers 050608, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Macroeconomics 0510022, EconWPA.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 2008.
"Evolution and Intelligent Design,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 5-37, March.
- Thomas J Sargent, 2007. "Evolution and Intelligent Design," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001821, UCLA Department of Economics.
- William Brock & Steven Durlauf & Kenneth West, 2005.
"Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: some theory and empirics,"
Proceedings,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: Some theory and empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 629-664, February.
- William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics," NBER Working Papers 10916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N. & West,K.D., 2004. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation : some theory and empirics," Working papers 19, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Milton Friedman, 1947. "Lerner on the Economics of Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55, pages 405.
- Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
- Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001.
"Measuring the natural rate of interest,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
- Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 35, Society for Computational Economics.
- Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006.
"Adaptive Learning, Persistence, and Optimal Monetary Policy,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 376-385, 04-05.
- Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006. "Adaptive learning, persistence, and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 644, European Central Bank.
- John C. Williams, 2003.
"Simple rules for monetary policy,"
Economic Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-12.
- John C. Williams, 1999. "Simple rules for monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006.
"A simple recursive forecasting model,"
Economics Letters,
Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
- Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.
- Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005.
"Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December.
- Todd E. Clark & Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," Research Working Paper RWP 04-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003.
"Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules,"
NBER Working Papers
9939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal Inflation-Targeting Rules," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 93-172 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2012.
"Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations,"
NBER Chapters,
in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2010. "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2010-2, Central Bank of Cyprus.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C, 2010. "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 7892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John Williams, 2011. "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 17080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2010. "Monetary policy mistakes and the evolution of inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 2010-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cyb:wpaper:2008-5For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maria Nicolaidou).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

