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Contagion in the interbank market and its determinants

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  • Memmel, Christoph
  • Sachs, Angelika

Abstract

Carrying out interbank contagion simulations for the German banking sector for the period from the first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2011, we obtain the following results: (i) The system becomes less vulnerable to direct interbank contagion over time. (ii) The loss distribution for each point in time can be condensed into one indicator, the expected number of failures, without much loss of information. (iii) Important determinants of this indicator are the banks' capital, their interbank lending in the system, the loss given default and how equal banks spread their claims among other banks. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies with number 2011,17.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:201117

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Keywords: Interbank market; contagion; time dimension;

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References

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  1. Christoph Memmel & Angelika Sachs & Ingrid Stein, 2012. "Contagion in the Interbank Market with Stochastic Loss Given Default," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 177-206, September.
  2. Viral V. Acharya, 2010. "Measuring systemic risk," Proceedings 1140, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
  4. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
  5. van den End, Jan Willem & Tabbae, Mostafa, 2012. "When liquidity risk becomes a systemic issue: Empirical evidence of bank behaviour," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 107-120.
  6. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2008. "Network models and financial stability," Bank of England working papers 346, Bank of England.
  7. Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2007. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 641, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Degryse, H.A. & Nguyen, G., 2006. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System," Discussion Paper 2006-016, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
  9. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2011. "Systemic risk contributions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:65-71 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2010. "Measuring systemic risk," Working Paper 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  12. Acharya, Viral V., 2009. "A Theory of Systemic Risk and Design of Prudential Bank Regulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7164, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Iman van Lelyveld & Franka Liedorp, 2006. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
  14. Bawa, Vijay S., 1975. "Optimal rules for ordering uncertain prospects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 95-121, March.
  15. Memmel, Christoph & Sachs, Angelika & Stein, Ingrid, 2011. "Contagion at the interbank market with stochastic LGD," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  16. Mathias Drehmann & Nikola Tarashev, 2011. "Systemic importance: some simple indicators," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  17. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mattia Montagna & Thomas Lux, 2013. "Hubs and resilience: towards more realistic models of the interbank markets," Kiel Working Papers 1826, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 249-261, June.
  3. Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2013. "Complex networks and banking systems supervision," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4429-4434.
  4. Löffler, Gunter & Raupach, Peter, 2013. "Robustness and informativeness of systemic risk measures," Discussion Papers 04/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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