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What do Twins Share? A Joint Probit Estimation of Banking and Currency Crises

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  • ELISABETTA FALCETTI
  • MERXE TUDELA

Abstract

We study the determinants of twin crises and investigate the direction of causality between banking and currency crises in emerging markets. We model banking and currency crises as dynamic events, correlated over time, and jointly estimate their probability using panel data simulation techniques. We show that banking and currency crises are closely intertwined and are driven by common fundamentals. Banking crises exhibit strong state dependence, suggesting that countries that have experienced a banking crisis in the past are more prone to experience another crisis. Finally, we find evidence of unobserved heterogeneity and autocorrelation in the error term structure.

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  • Elisabetta Falcetti & Merxe Tudela, 2008. "What do Twins Share? A Joint Probit Estimation of Banking and Currency Crises," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(298), pages 199-221, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:75:y:2008:i:298:p:199-221
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2007.00613.x
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    2. V A Hajivassiliou & Frédérique Savignac & Frédérique Savignac, 2019. "Novel Approaches to Coherency Conditions in Dynamic LDV Models: Quantifying Financing Constraints and a Firm's Decision and Ability to Innovate," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 606, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    3. Jing, Zhongbo, 2015. "On the relation between currency and banking crises in developing countries, 1980–2010," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 267-291.
    4. Hegerty, Scott W., 2012. "Money market pressure in emerging economies: International contagion versus domestic determinants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 506-521.
    5. Diemo Dietrich & Tobias Knedlik & Axel Lindner, 2011. "Central and Eastern European countries in the global financial crisis: a typical twin crisis?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 415-432, April.
    6. Apergis, Emmanuel & Apergis, Iraklis & Apergis, Nicholas, 2019. "A new macro stress testing approach for financial realignment in the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 52-80.
    7. Eichler, Stefan, 2012. "Financial crisis risk, ECB “non-standard” measures, and the external value of the euro," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 257-265.
    8. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis & Savignac, Frédérique, 2024. "Simultaneously Incomplete and Incoherent (SII) Dynamic LDV Models: With an Application to Financing Constraints and Firms’ Decision to Innovate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    9. Corder, Matthew & Weale, Martin, 2011. "Banking crises and recessions: what can leading indicators tell us?," Discussion Papers 33, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    10. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Karataş, Bilge, 2020. "Together or apart? The relationship between currency and banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    11. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 1. Drivers of Systemic Banking Crises: The Role of Bank-Balance-Sheet Contagion and Financial Account Structure," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 902, OECD Publishing.
    12. Samitas, Aristeidis & Polyzos, Stathis & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2018. "Brexit and financial stability: An agent-based simulation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 181-192.
    13. Samitas, Aristeidis & Polyzos, Stathis, 2016. "Freeing Greece from capital controls: Were the restrictions enforced in time?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 196-213.
    14. Ahrend, Rudiger & Goujard, Antoine, 2015. "Global banking, global crises? The role of the bank balance-sheet channel for the transmission of financial crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 253-279.

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