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Central and Eastern European countries in the global financial crisis: a typical twin crisis?

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  • Diemo Dietrich
  • Tobias Knedlik
  • Axel Lindner

Abstract

This article shows that during the Great Recession banking and currency crises occurred simultaneously in Central and Eastern Europe. Events, however, differed widely from what happened during the Asian crisis that usually serves as the model case for the concept of twin crises. We look at three elements that help to explain the nature of events in Central and Eastern Europe: the problem of currency mismatches, the relation between currency and banking crises and the importance of multinational banks for financial stability. We show that theoretical considerations concerning internal capital markets of multinational banks help us understand what happened on capital markets and in the financial sector of the region. We discuss opposing effects of multinational banking on financial stability and find that institutional differences are the key to understanding different effects of the global financial crisis. In particular, we argue that it matters whether international activities are organised by subsidiaries or by cross-border financial services, how large the share of foreign currency-denominated credit is and whether the exchange rate is fixed or flexible. Based on these three criteria we give an explanation why the pattern of the crisis in the Baltic countries differed markedly from that in Poland and the Czech Republic, the two largest countries of the region.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14631377.2011.622561
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Post-Communist Economies.

Volume (Year): 23 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 415-432

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Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:23:y:2011:i:4:p:415-432

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  1. Diemo Dietrich, 2004. "Financing FDI into Developing Economies and the International Transmission of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(IV), pages 449-481, December.
  2. de Haas, Ralph & van Lelyveld, Iman, 2006. "Foreign banks and credit stability in Central and Eastern Europe. A panel data analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1927-1952, July.
  3. Diemo Dietrich & Uwe Vollmer, 2010. "International Banking and Liquidity Allocation," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 45-69, February.
  4. Elhanan Helpman, 2006. "Trade, FDI, and the Organization of Firms," NBER Working Papers 12091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2002. "How bad are twins? output costs of currency and banking crises," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2002-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Risk and the Corporate Structure of Banks," IMF Working Papers 10/40, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Internal Capital Markets and the Competition for Corporate Resources," NBER Working Papers 5101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. De Haas, Ralph & Naaborg, Ilko, 2006. "Foreign banks in transition countries. To whom do they lend and how are they financed?," MPRA Paper 6320, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Cerutti, Eugenio & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2007. "How banks go abroad: Branches or subsidiaries?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1669-1692, June.
  12. Diemo Dietrich, 2006. "Asset Tangibility and Capital Allocation within Multinational Corporations," IWH Discussion Papers 4, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  13. Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Information Production and Capital Allocation: Decentralized versus Hierarchical Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1891-1921, October.
  14. Diemo Dietrich & Axel Lindner, 2002. "Währungspolitische Lehren aus dem Scheitern des argentinischen Currency board," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research, vol. 8(15), pages 463-469.
  15. Roman Inderst & Holger M. Müller, 2003. "Internal versus External Financing: An Optimal Contracting Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1033-1062, 06.
  16. Dietrich, Diemo & Jindra, Björn, 2010. "Corporate governance in the multinational enterprise: A financial contracting perspective," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 446-456, October.
  17. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.23.
  18. Buch, Claudia M. & Lipponer, Alexander, 2007. "FDI versus exports: Evidence from German banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 805-826, March.
  19. de Haas, Ralph & van Lelyveld, Iman, 2010. "Internal capital markets and lending by multinational bank subsidiaries," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-25, January.
  20. Tobias Knedlik, 2006. "Signaling Currency Crises in South Africa," IWH Discussion Papers 19, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  21. Gray, Jean M. & Gray, H. Peter, 1981. "The multinational bank: A financial MNC?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 33-63, March.
  22. Grüner, Hans Peter & Fecht, Falko, 2006. "Limits to international banking consolidation," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  23. Tobias Knedlik & Rolf Scheufele, 2008. "Forecasting Currency Crises: Which Methods Signaled The South African Crisis Of June 2006?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 367-383, 09.
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