IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/onb/oenbfi/y2013i3b3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Credit risk assessment is a crucial part of macroprudential analysis, with the aggregate nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio serving as a proxy for the economy-wide probability of default of the banking sector’s overall loan exposure. Therefore, the factors driving the NPL ratio deserve a lot of interest. This study provides a macroeconomic model for nonperforming loans (NPLs) for the Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. It is based on panel data for Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Ukraine. In line with current literature, our empirical analysis confirms that economic growth is the main driver that is negatively correlated with NPL development. This inverse relation is also indicated by the stock index as a leading indicator for economic developments. However, there are also other important determinants that can help explain the change in NPL ratios in the CESEE countries: past credit growth as well as exchange rate changes coupled with the share of foreign currency loans in total loans. This study confirms and quantifies risks of excessive credit growth as well as foreign exchange lending.

Suggested Citation

  • Petr Jakubík & Thomas Reininger, 2013. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 48-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2013:i:3:b:3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:3011161e-46fb-43df-81c5-459a84aa7997/feei_2013_q3_studies_jakubik_tcm16-257383.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nir Klein, 2013. "Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 2013/072, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Bogdan MOINESCU & Adrian CODIRLAŞU, 2012. "Assessing the Sectoral Dynamics of Non-performing Loans: Signs from Financial and Real Economy," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(567)), pages 69-80, February.
    3. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 2010/224, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Beck, Roland & Jakubik, Petr & Piloiu, Anamaria, 2013. "Non-performing loans: what matters in addition to the economic cycle?," Working Paper Series 1515, European Central Bank.
    5. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    6. Natasa Erjavec & Boris Cota & Sasa Jaksic, 2012. "Sign restriction approach to macro stress-testing of the Croatian banking system," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 36(4), pages 395-412.
    7. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2012:i:181:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/161, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mr. Reinout De Bock & Mr. Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets: Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2012/071, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    11. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2013. "Macroprudential stress testing of credit risk: A practical approach for policy makers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 347-370.
    12. Stephan Barisitz, 2013. "Nonperforming Loans in CESEE – An Even Deeper Definitional Comparison," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 67-84.
    13. Elisabeth Beckmann & Jarko Fidrmuc & Helmut Stix, 2012. "Foreign Currency Loans and Loan Arrears of Households in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 181, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    14. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    15. Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March.
    16. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    17. Stephen R. Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(2), pages 141-162, August.
    18. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    19. Grigori Fainstein & Igor Novikov, 2011. "The Comparative Analysis of Credit Risk Determinants In the Banking Sector of the Baltic States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 20-45, June.
    20. Stephen Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Koju Laxmi & Wang Shouyang & Abbas Ghulam, 2018. "Do Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Vary with the Income Levels of Countries?," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 6(6), pages 512-531, December.
    2. Petros Golitsis & Athanasios P. Fassas & Anna Lyutakova, 2019. "Credit Risk Determinants: Evidence from the Bulgarian Banking System," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 41-64.
    3. Ghosh, Amit, 2017. "Sector-specific analysis of non-performing loans in the US banking system and their macroeconomic impact," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 29-45.
    4. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    5. Aswini Kumar Mishra & Shikhar Jain & Mohammad Abid, 2021. "Non‐performing assets and its determinants in the Indian banking system: An empirical analysis using dynamic panel data models," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5948-5962, October.
    6. Alexandra Bykova & Olga Pindyuk, 2019. "Non-Performing Loans in Central and Southeast Europe," wiiw Policy Notes 32, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    7. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Alexis Derviz & Vaclav Hausenblas & Michal Hlavacek & Mark Joy & Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Ivana Kubicova & Jitka Lesanovska, 2014. "Macroprudential Research: Selected Issues," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 12, number rb12/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Borek Vasicek, January.
    8. Gulati, Rachita & Goswami, Anju & Kumar, Sunil, 2019. "What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 42-62.
    9. Ruja, Catalin, 2014. "Macro Stress-Testing Credit Risk in Romanian Banking System," MPRA Paper 58244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gabrisch, Hubert, 2014. "The binding constraint on growth in less developed Western Balkan countries," MPRA Paper 60020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Burim Gashi, 2021. "Impact of Bank Specific and Macro Determinants on Non-performing Loans of Polish Banking Sector," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 129-147.
    12. Dorsaf Elbir Merhbene, 2021. "The relationship between non-performing loans, banking system stability and economic activity: The case of Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 03-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    13. Albulena Shala & Valentin Toçi & Arben Mustafa, 2022. "Macroeconomic, Structural, and Bank-specific Determinants of Non-performing Loans in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(5), pages 411-429, May.
    14. Ciukaj Radosław & Kil Krzysztof, 2020. "Determinants of the non-performing loan ratio in the European Union banking sectors with a high level of impaired loans," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 22-45, March.
    15. Peric Blanka Skrabic & Konjusak Nikola, 2017. "How did rapid credit growth cause non-performing loans in the CEE Countries?," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 12(2), pages 73-84, December.
    16. Dunz, Nepomuk & Naqvi, Asjad & Monasterolo, Irene, 2019. "Climate Transition Risk, Climate Sentiments, and Financial Stability in a Stock-Flow Consistent approach," Ecological Economic Papers 23, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    17. Svetozar Tanasković & Maja Jandrić, 2015. "Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Non-performing Loans," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 4(1), pages 47-62.
    18. Škrabić Perić, Blanka & Rimac Smiljanić, Ana & Aljinović, Zdravka, 2018. "Credit risk of subsidiaries of foreign banks in CEE countries: Impacts of the parent bank and home country economic environment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 49-69.
    19. Vasiliki Makri & Konstantinos Papadatos, 2014. "How accounting information and macroeconomic environment determine credit risk? Evidence from Greece," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(1), pages 129-143, April.
    20. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    21. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Richard Olaolu Olayeni & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Is there a nonlinear relationship between nonperforming loans and bank profitability? Evidence from dynamic panel threshold," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 649-661, April.
    22. ROMAN Angela & BILAN Irina, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Determinants Of Non-Performing Loans In Eu28 Banking Sector," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 67(2), pages 108-127.
    23. Serpil Kılıç Depren & Mustafa Tevfik Kartal, 2021. "Prediction on the volume of non‐performing loans in Turkey using multivariate adaptive regression splines approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6395-6405, October.
    24. Niţoi, Mihai & Clichici, Dorina & Moagăr-Poladian, Simona, 2019. "The effects of prudential policies on bank leverage and insolvency risk in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 148-160.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gulati, Rachita & Goswami, Anju & Kumar, Sunil, 2019. "What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 42-62.
    2. Ghosh, Amit, 2017. "Sector-specific analysis of non-performing loans in the US banking system and their macroeconomic impact," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 29-45.
    3. Škrabić Perić, Blanka & Rimac Smiljanić, Ana & Aljinović, Zdravka, 2018. "Credit risk of subsidiaries of foreign banks in CEE countries: Impacts of the parent bank and home country economic environment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 49-69.
    4. Gamze Öztürk DANIŞMAN, 2018. "Determinants of Bank Stability: A Financial Statement Analysis of Turkish Banks," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(38).
    5. Alandejani, Maha & Asutay, Mehmet, 2017. "Nonperforming loans in the GCC banking sectors: Does the Islamic finance matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 832-854.
    6. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    7. Radivojević, Nikola & Cvijanović, Drago & Sekulic, Dejan & Pavlovic, Dejana & Jovic, Srdjan & Maksimović, Goran, 2019. "Econometric model of non-performing loans determinants," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 520(C), pages 481-488.
    8. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    9. Muhammad Waqas & Nudrat Fatima & Aryan Khan & Muhammad Arif, 2017. "Determinants of Non-performing Loans: A Comparative Study of Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 6(1), pages 51-68, January.
    10. Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.
    11. Mr. Rodolfo Maino & Mr. Kalin I Tintchev, 2012. "From Stress to Costress: Stress Testing Interconnected Banking Systems," IMF Working Papers 2012/053, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Miyajima Ken, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-15, August.
    13. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    14. Svetozar Tanasković & Maja Jandrić, 2015. "Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Non-performing Loans," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 4(1), pages 47-62.
    15. Cândida Ferreira, 2022. "Determinants of Non-performing Loans: A Panel Data Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(3), pages 133-153, November.
    16. Laxmi Koju & Ram Koju & Shouyang Wang, 2018. "Does Banking Management Affect Credit Risk? Evidence from the Indian Banking System," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-11, July.
    17. Vasilis Siakoulis, 2017. "Fiscal policy effects on non-performing loan formation," Working Papers 224, Bank of Greece.
    18. ROMAN Angela & BILAN Irina, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Determinants Of Non-Performing Loans In Eu28 Banking Sector," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 67(2), pages 108-127.
    19. Huy Quang Doan, 2019. "Trade, Institutional Quality and Income: Empirical Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-23, May.
    20. Kampelmann, Stephan & Rycx, François, 2012. "The impact of educational mismatch on firm productivity: Evidence from linked panel data," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 918-931.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonperforming loans; credit risk; financial stability; macroprudential framework; Central; Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE); emerging Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2013:i:3:b:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Elisabeth Beckmann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oenbbat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.