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The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?

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  • Claudio Borio

Abstract

It is high time we rediscovered the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics. In the environment that has prevailed for at least three decades now, it is not possible to understand business fluctuations and the corresponding analytical and policy challenges without understanding the financial cycle. This calls for a rethink of modelling strategies and for significant adjustments to macroeconomic policies. This essay highlights the stylised empirical features of the financial cycle, conjectures as to what it may take to model it satisfactorily, and considers its policy implications. In the discussion of policy, the essay pays special attention to the bust phase, which is less well explored and raises much more controversial issues.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 395.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:395

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Keywords: financial cycle; business cycle; medium term; financial crises; monetary economy; balance sheet recessions; balance sheet repair;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  2. Guillermo Calvo, 2013. "Puzzling over the Anatomy of Crises: Liquidity and the Veil of Finance," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  3. S. Devrim Yilmaz & Burak Saltoglu, 2013. "Why is it so Difficult and Complex to Solve the Euro Problem?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 180, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  4. Ignacio Lozano & Alexander Guarín, 2014. "Banking Fragility in Colombia: An Empirical Analysis Based on Balance Sheets," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011145, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Otmar Issing, 2013. "A New Paradigm for Monetary Policy?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 273-288, 06.
  6. Chris Hunt, 2013. "The last financial crisis and the case for macro-prudential intervention," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 76, pages 3-16, June.
  7. Christophe Blot & Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Francesco Saraceno, 2013. "Assessing the Link between Price and Financial Stability," Working papers wpaper33, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
  8. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 249-261, June.
  9. Issing, Otmar, 2013. "A new paradigm for monetary policy?," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  10. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Fabien Labondance & Francesco Saraceno & Paul Hubert, 2014. "Assessing the link between Price and Financial Stability," Sciences Po publications 2014-02, Sciences Po.
  11. Albinowski, Maciej & Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2013. "Distrust in the ECB – product of failed crisis prevention or of inappropriate cure?," MPRA Paper 48242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Niels Gilbert & Jeroen Hessel & Silvie Verkaart, 2013. "Towards a Stable Monetary Union: What Role for Eurobonds?," DNB Working Papers 379, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  13. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "Did Credit Decouple from Output in the Great Moderation?," MPRA Paper 47424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2013. "Growth-promoting Policies and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1091, OECD Publishing.
  15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p4oqi4ibn is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Philip Lane, 2013. "International Capital Flows and Domestic Financial Conditions: Lessons for Emerging Asia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp438, IIIS.
  17. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2013. "The Mayekawa Lecture: Puzzling over the Anatomy of Crises- Liquidity and the Veil of Finance," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 31, pages 39-64, November.
  18. Claudio Borio, 2013. "On Time, Stocks and Flows: Understanding the Global Macroeconomic Challenges," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 225(1), pages R3-R13, August.
  19. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2014. "Growth Policies and Macroeconomic Stability," OECD Economic Policy Papers 8, OECD Publishing.
  20. Ignacio Lozano & Alexander Guarín, 2014. "Fragilidad Bancaria en Colombia: Un Análisis Basado en las Hojas de Balance," Borradores de Economia 813, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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