Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Financial Sector Profitability and Double-Gearing

In: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mitsuhiro Fukao

Abstract

In this paper, I show that Japan will not be able to have a viable banking sector without stopping deflation. The banking industry has not shown a profit since fiscal 1993 (ended March 1994) if one excludes capital gains from stock and real estate portfolios. I quantify the financial condition of the sector and show that interest margins have been too low to cover the increase in loan losses brought about by the weak economy. Banks cannot raise margins for several reasons: competition with subsidized government sponsored financial institutions (GFIs); intense political pressure, backed by the Financial Services Agency (FSA), to make new loans to small and medium companies; and deflation-weakened borrowers. I expect that the Japanese government will have to nationalize most of the banking sector by 2005. Capital injections will not solve the problems. Established Japanese life insurance companies are also troubled because they over-promised the amount that they could pay. This can be corrected through a reorganization where the promised interest rates are cut. But this is complicated because Japanese banks and life insurance companies are providing each other capital a practice called double-gearing. Weakened banks ask insurance companies to provide equity capital and subordinated loans. In return, the mutual life insurers ask banks to subscribe their surplus notes (similar to non-voting redeemable preferred shares) and subordinated debt. The risks of double-gearing are analyzed.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c9571.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

as in new window

This chapter was published in:

  • Magnus Blomström & Jennifer Corbett & Fumio Hayashi & Anil Kashyap, 2003. "Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number blom03-1, October.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 9571.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:9571

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
    Phone: 617-868-3900
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.nber.org
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    Other versions of this item:

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 1999. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Working Papers 7250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Hendrik Hakenes & Isabel Schnabel, 2004. "Banks without Parachutes – Competitive Effects of Government Bail-out Policies," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2004_12, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    2. Masami Imai & Seitaro Takarabe, 2009. "Transmission of Liquidity Shock to Bank Credit: Evidence from the Deposit Insurance Reform in Japan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-001, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    3. Smith, David C., 2003. "Loans to Japanese borrowers," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-304, September.
    4. Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2004. "Japan's Financial Crisis and Economic Stagnation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    5. Robert Dekle, 2003. "The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population," NBER Chapters, in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 71-88 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Marianne Rubinstein, 2008. "Le marché de l’immobilier résidentiel en France : évolutions récentes et perspectives," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 91(1), pages 143-163.
    7. Mitsuhiro Fukao, 2005. "The effects of ‘Gesell’ (Currency) taxes in promoting Japan's economic recovery," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 173-188, November.
    8. Claudio Borio, 2012. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," BIS Working Papers 395, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Masami Imai, 2006. "Market Discipline and Deposit Insurance Reform in Japan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-007, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    10. Imai, Masami, 2007. "The emergence of market monitoring in Japanese banks: Evidence from the subordinated debt market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1441-1460, May.
    11. Anil K. Kashyap, 2002. "Sorting out Japan's financial crisis," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 42-55.
    12. David C. Smith, 2002. "Loans to Japanese borrowers," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2002-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Hoshi, Takeo & Kashyap, Anil K, 2010. "Will the U.S. bank recapitalization succeed? Eight lessons from Japan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 398-417, September.
    14. Oren Levintal, 2012. "Equity Capital, Bankruptcy Risk and the Liquidity Trap," Working Papers 2012-07, Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University.
    15. Imai, Masami, 2006. "Market discipline and deposit insurance reform in Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3433-3452, December.
    16. Imai, Masami & Takarabe, Seitaro, 2011. "Transmission of liquidity shock to bank credit: Evidence from the deposit insurance reform in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 143-156, June.
    17. Richard S. Grossman & Masami Imai, 2011. "Contingent Capital and Bank Risk-Taking among British Banks before World War I," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2011-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    18. Masami Imai, 2006. "The Emergence of Market Monitoring in Japanese Banks: Evidence from the Subordinated Debt Market," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-008, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    19. David C. Smith, 2003. "Loans to Japanese borrowers," International Finance Discussion Papers 769, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:9571. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.