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Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!

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  • Mathias Drehmann
  • Claudio Borio
  • Kostas Tsatsaronis

Abstract

We characterise empirically the financial cycle using two approaches: analysis of turning points and frequency-based filters. We identify the financial cycle with the medium-term component in the joint fluctuations of credit and property prices; equity prices do not fit this picture well. We show that financial cycle peaks are very closely associated with financial crises and that the length and amplitude of the financial cycle have increased markedly since the mid-1980s. We argue that this reflects, in particular, financial liberalisation and changes in monetary policy frameworks. So defined, the financial cycle is much longer than the traditional business cycle. Business cycle recessions are much deeper when they coincide with the contraction phase of the financial cycle. We also draw attention to the "unfinished recession" phenomenon: policy responses that fail to take into account the length of the financial cycle may help contain recessions in the short run but at the expense of larger recessions down the road.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 380.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:380

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Related research

Keywords: financial cycle; business cycle; credit; asset prices; financial crises; medium-term;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2013. "Financial stability and economic performance," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-24, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  2. Jan Willem van den End, 2013. "A macroprudential approach to address liquidity risk with the Loan-to-Deposit ratio," DNB Working Papers 372, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2012. "House prices, credit growth, and excess volatility: implications for monetary and macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2012-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Fabien Labondance & Francesco Saraceno & Paul Hubert, 2014. "Assessing the link between Price and Financial Stability," Sciences Po publications 2014-02, Sciences Po.
  5. Christophe Blot & Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Francesco Saraceno, 2013. "Assessing the Link between Price and Financial Stability," Working papers wpaper33, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
  6. Markus Haavio & Caterina Mendicino & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2014. "Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(6), pages 407-412, April.
  7. Claudio Borio, 2013. "On Time, Stocks and Flows: Understanding the Global Macroeconomic Challenges," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 225(1), pages R3-R13, August.
  8. Aizenman, Joshua & Pinto, Brian & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2013. "Financial sector ups and downs and the real sector in the open economy: Up by the stairs, down by the parachute," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 1-30.
  9. Arnold, Bruce & Borio, Claudio & Ellis, Luci & Moshirian, Fariborz, 2012. "Systemic risk, macroprudential policy frameworks, monitoring financial systems and the evolution of capital adequacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3125-3132.
  10. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p4oqi4ibn is not listed on IDEAS

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