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When Credit Bites Back

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  • ÒSCAR JORDÀ
  • MORITZ SCHULARICK
  • ALAN M. TAYLOR

Abstract

This paper studies the role of credit in the business cycle, with a focus on private credit overhang. Based on a study of the universe of over 200 recession episodes in 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008, we document two key facts of the modern business cycle: financial-crisis recessions are more costly than normal recessions in terms of lost output; and for both types of recession, more credit-intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. In addition to unconditional analysis, we use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macroeconomic controls and their lags. Then we study how past credit accumulation impacts the behavior of not only output, but also other key macroeconomic variables such as investment, lending, interest rates, and inflation. The facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that nancial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 45 (2013)
Issue (Month): s2 (December)
Pages: 3-28

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i:s2:p:3-28

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  2. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Staff Report 145, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-57, March.
  4. Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," CEPR Discussion Papers 7570, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
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  13. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: Challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1426-1461, December.
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  16. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
  17. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
  18. Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007 to 2009," NBER Working Papers 15896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Coen Teulings & Nick Zubanov, 2011. "Is economic recovery a myth? Robust estimation of impulse responses," CPB Discussion Paper 131, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  20. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 4431, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Max Breitenlechner & Johann Scharler, 2014. "How Strongly are Business Cycles and Financial Cycles Linked in the G7 Countries?," Working Papers 2014-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  3. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2014. "Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending," BCAM Working Papers 1402, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
  4. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2012. "International credit cycles: a regional perspective," MPRA Paper 37773, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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