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This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1

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  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Rogoff, Kenneth

Abstract

Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. We stress that premise is wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. We argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much--or how little--we have learned. We document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. We examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts--as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. While countries do weather their financial storms, we show that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 17452.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:17452

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Keywords: banking and financial crises; currency crash; inflation; debt; default; recession;

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Cited by:
  1. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Perri, Fabrizio, 2012. "Global Banks and Crisis Transmission," CEPR Discussion Papers 9044, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2012. "Crisis and recovery: Role of the exchange rate regime in emerging market economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 470-488.
  3. Ozlem Akin & José Garcia Montalvo & Jaume Garcia Villar & José-Luis Peydró & Josep M. Raya, 2014. "The real estate and credit bubble: Evidence from Spain," Economics Working Papers 1430, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Shifting Mandates: The Federal Reserve's First Centennial," Scholarly Articles 11129184, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Aboura, Sofiane & Lépinette-Denis, Emmanuel, 2014. "An Alternative Model to Basel Regulation," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/13633, Paris Dauphine University.
  6. Langkamp, Christian, 2011. "Counterparty credit risk management in industrial corporates," MPRA Paper 34358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. C. Fred Bergsten & Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, 2012. "The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis," Policy Briefs PB12-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  8. Priscilla Liang & Thomas D. Willett & Nan Zhang, 2010. "The Slow Spread Of The Global Crisis," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 33-58.
  9. Ding Ding & Werner Schule & Yan Sun, 2014. "Cross-Country Experience in Reducing Net Foreign Liabilities: Lessons for New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 14/62, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Fuster, Andreas & Herbert, Benjamin & Laibson, David I., 2011. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," Scholarly Articles 10140029, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Thomas D. Willett, 2012. "The role of defective mental models in generating the global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 41-57, April.
  12. Arnold, Bruce & Borio, Claudio & Ellis, Luci & Moshirian, Fariborz, 2012. "Systemic risk, macroprudential policy frameworks, monitoring financial systems and the evolution of capital adequacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3125-3132.
  13. Datta, Soumya, 2014. "Macrodynamics of debt-financed investment-led growth with interest rate rules," MPRA Paper 56713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Ozlem Akin & José G. Montalvo & Jaume García Villar & José-Luis Peydró & Josep Maria Raya, 2014. "The Real Estate and Credit Bubble: Evidence from Spain," Working Papers 772, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  15. Levine, Oliver & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2014. "Finance and Productivity Growth: Firm-level Evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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