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Banking Crises and Crisis Dating: Theory and Evidence

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  • John Boyd
  • Gianni De Nicolò
  • Elena Loukoianova

Abstract

We formulate a simple theoretical model of a banking industry that we use to identify and construct theory-based measures of systemic bank shocks (SBS). These measures differ from “banking crisis” (BC) indicators employed in many empirical studies, which are constructed using primarily information on government actions undertaken in response to bank distress. Using both country-level and firm-level samples, we show that SBS indicators consistently predict BC indicators, indicating that BC indicators actually measure lagged policy responses to systemic bank shocks. We then re-examine the impact of macroeconomic factors, bank market structure, deposit insurance, and external shocks on the probability of systemic bank shocks (SBS) and on “banking crisis” (BC) indicators. We find that the impact of these variables on the likelihood of a policy response to banking distress (as represented by BC indicators) is frequently quite different from that on the likelihood of a systemic bank shock (SBS). We argue that disentangling the effects of systemic bank shocks and policy responses is crucial in understanding the roots of banking crises. We believe that many findings of a large empirical literature need to be re-assessed.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3134.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3134

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," CEMA Working Papers 595, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  2. Gerard Caprio & Patrick Honohan, 2008. "Banking Crises," Center for Development Economics 2008-09, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," NBER Working Papers 13761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Jürgen Von Hagen & Tai-Kuang Ho, 2007. "Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1037-1066, 08.
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Bordo, Michael D., 2008. "Growing up to Financial Stability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(12), pages 1-17.
  8. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2006. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," NBER Working Papers 12484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Di Nicolo, G. & Lucchetta, M., 2010. "Financial Intermediation, Competition, and Risk: A General Equilibrium Exposition," Discussion Paper 2010-67S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  10. Carlos O. Arteta, 2003. "Are financially dollarized countries more prone to costly crises?," International Finance Discussion Papers 763, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005. "Systemic Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl Friedrich Habermeier & Marcos Chamon & Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Elena Loukoianova & Gianni De Nicoló & John H. Boyd, 2009. "Banking Crises and Crisis Dating," IMF Working Papers 09/141, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. De Nicolò, Gianni & Juvenal, Luciana, 2014. "Financial integration, globalization, and real activity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 65-75.
  2. Gianni De Nicoló & Andrea Gamba & Marcella Lucchetta, 2012. "Capital Regulation, Liquidity Requirements and Taxation in a Dynamic Model of Banking," IMF Working Papers 12/72, International Monetary Fund.

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