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Asset price misalignments and the role of money and credit

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Author Info
Dieter Gerdesmeier () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Barbara Roffia () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Hans-Eggert Reimers () (Hochschule Wismar, Postfach 1210, D-23952 Wismar, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature on the properties of money and credit indicators for detecting asset price misalignments. After a review of the evidence in the literature on this issue, the paper discusses the approaches that can be considered to detect asset price busts. Considering a sample of 17 OECD industrialised countries and the euro area over the period 1969 Q1 – 2008 Q3, we construct an asset price composite indicator which incorporates developments in both the stock price and house price markets and propose a criterion to identify the periods characterised by asset price busts, which has been applied in the currency crisis literature. The empirical analysis is based on a pooled probit-type approach with several macroeconomic monetary, financial and real variables. According to statistical tests, credit aggregates (either in terms of annual changes or growth gap), changes in nominal long-term interest rates and investment-to-GDP ratio combined with either house prices or stock prices dynamics turn out to be the best indicators which help to forecast asset price busts up to 8 quarters ahead. JEL Classification: E37, E44, E51.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1068.

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Length: 80 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091068

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Related research
Keywords: Asset prices; house prices; stock prices; financial crisis; asset price busts; probit models; monetary aggregates; credit aggregates.;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial asset prices and monetary policy: theory and evidence," BIS Working Papers 47, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Ramón Adalid & Carsten Detken, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1998. "Consistent covariance matrix estimation in probit models with autocorrelated errors," Staff Reports 39, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2003. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1119-1215.
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  8. Christophe Hurlin & Valérie Mignon, 2007. "Second Generation Panel Unit Root Tests," Working Papers halshs-00159842_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  9. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Andrew J. Filardo, 2000. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 11-37. [Downloadable!]
  11. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Future of Monetary Aggregates in Monetary Policy Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 3897, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Lucia Alessi & Carsten Detken, 2009. "Real Time’ early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles - a role for global liquidity," Working Paper Series 1039, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Rebecca N. Coke & Andrew Berg, 2004. "Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits: An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction," IMF Working Papers 04/39, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  18. Michael D. Bordo & Andrew Filardo, 2004. "Deflation and Monetary Policy in a Historical Perspective: Remembering the Past or Being Condemned to Repeat It?," NBER Working Papers 10833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Kuper, Gerard H. & Lestano, 2005. "Currency crises in Asia: a multivariate logit approach," CCSO Working Papers 200506, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Carsten Detken & Frank Smets, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  23. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Irina Bunda & Michele Ca’ Zorzi, 2009. "Signals from housing and lending booms," Working Paper Series 1094, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Campbell Leith & Ioana Moldovan & Raffaele Rossi, 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Habits in Consumption," Working Paper Series 1076, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Giacomo Carboni & Martin Ellison, 2009. "Inflation and output volatility under asymmetric incomplete information," Working Paper Series 1092, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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