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Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan

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  • Ricardo J. Caballero
  • Takeo Hoshi
  • Anil K. Kashyap

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a bank-based explanation for the decade-long Japanese slowdown following the asset price collapse in the early 1990s. We start with the well-known observation that most large Japanese banks were only able to comply with capital standards because regulators were lax in their inspections. To facilitate this forbearance the banks often engaged in sham loan restructurings that kept credit flowing to otherwise insolvent borrowers (that we call zombies). Thus, the normal competitive outcome whereby the zombies would shed workers and lose market share was thwarted. Our model highlights the restructuring implications of the zombie problem. The counterpart of the congestion created by the zombies is a reduction of the profits for healthy firms, which discourages their entry and investment. In this context, even solvent banks do not find good lending opportunities. We confirm our story's key predictions that zombie-dominated industries exhibit more depressed job creation and destruction, and lower productivity. We present firm-level regressions showing that the increase in zombies depressed the investment and employment growth of non-zombies and widened the productivity gap between zombies and non-zombies.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12129.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12129

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  1. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2003. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," NBER Working Papers 9643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Richard Rogerson & Diego Restuccia, 2004. "Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Heterogeneous Plants," 2004 Meeting Papers 69, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1998. "The Macroeconomics of Specificity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(4), pages 724-767, August.
  4. Ito, Takatoshi & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 2002. "Impacts of the Basle Capital Standard on Japanese Banks' Behavior," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 372-397, September.
  5. Ogawa, K. & Kitasaka, S.-I., 2000. "Bank Lending in Japan: its Determinants and Macroeconomic Implications," ISER Discussion Paper 0505, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  6. Bernanke, Ben & Bohn, Henning & Reiss, Peter C., 1988. "Alternative non-nested specification tests of time-series investment models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 293-326, March.
  7. Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2004. "Japan's Financial Crisis and Economic Stagnation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
  8. Alan Ahearne & Naoki Shinada, 2005. "Zombie firms and economic stagnation in Japan," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 363-381, December.
  9. Nakakuki, Masayuki & Otani, Akira & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2004. "Distortions in Factor Markets and Structural Adjustments in the Economy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(2), pages 71-99, May.
  10. Flath, David, 2000. "The Japanese Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198775034, September.
  11. Takeo Hoshi, 2006. "Economics Of The Living Dead," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(1), pages 30-49.
  12. Smith, David C., 2003. "Loans to Japanese borrowers," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-304, September.
  13. Yasushi Hamao & Jianping Mei & Yexiao Xu, 2007. "Unique Symptoms of Japanese Stagnation: An Equity Market Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 901-923, 06.
  14. Miyagawa, Tsutomu & Ito, Yukiko & Harada, Nobuyuki, 2004. "The IT revolution and productivity growth in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 362-389, September.
  15. David C. Smith, 2003. "Loans to Japanese borrowers," International Finance Discussion Papers 769, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Sakai, Koji & Uesugi, Iichiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2010. "Firm age and the evolution of borrowing costs: Evidence from Japanese small firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1970-1981, August.
  17. Xu Yi & Nezih Guner & Gustavo Ventura, 2004. "Macroeconomic Implications of Restrictions on Size," 2004 Meeting Papers 879, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. repec:fth:osakae:505 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Se-Jik Kim, 2004. "Macro Effects of Corporate Restructuring in Japan," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 457-492, November.
  20. Sekine, Toshitaka & Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Saita, Yumi, 2003. "Forbearance Lending: The Case of Japanese Firms," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 69-92, August.
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  1. Is a lost decade ahead?
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-07-13 13:56:00
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